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The soy was all over the place today. Indecision, uncertainty, all create a difficult environment. The flow of continual information at times can be distracting. When I look at the charts, this has been very difficult, unless a short term view is used. Then it is still difficult. Enough of the complaints already. The market appears to be focused on the China relationships. This will be key. At present, Brazil is suffering some issues with strikes. These will have a potentially large impact on the chicken and cattle markets. Talk of the chicken breeding stock being effected. Would this free up more meal? I am wondering if we just have not entered an overproduction phase with meat that needs to be curtailed. Food for thought. The meal has been the leader for some time. The oilshare is at approx 29.5 %. Perhaps a major shift is needed to change this long standing scenario. I keep waiting. My views are constant. In the long run, beans and meal will be oversupplied. Where does the present meet the future? I to am asking questions. The global oil supply is ample. The overproduction and the high crush margins continue to see to it.
The corn came under selling pressure with the crop ratings at a very high level. The planting progress has been on schedule. However, there are key areas that are way behind year ago levels. Will this create a yield drag. The market believes at present that it is a possibility we add to the carry. There is a long growing season in front of us. The old adage we kill the crop three times has not even come into play. The question is where do we bottom for a quantifiable strategy that could take us higher? The global feed grain scenario is still supportive of corn. No changes on that front. It will be important to have a good crop to keep the stocks to usage from getting tighter. The global numbers remain friendly and need to earn some acres. Be patient with corn with a long term eye for one more nice move into the growing season.
” LIFE MUST BE UNDERSTOOD BACKWARD, BUT IT MUST BE LIVED FOREWARD ” SOREN KIERKEGAARD
John J. Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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