AG TIME Rolling Along by John Walsh
Oct 29, 2018
The month of October is about in the books. The weather has improved and the harvest is rolling along. Today's progress numbers should confirm that. The next large fundamental to watch will be the Nov crop report. It is possible to see a further increase in yield. Slight as it may be. The beans will continue to have much to deal with. The domestic numbers are huge. The Chinese are all but invisible. The South American is planting at or near record pace. This could ensure an early harvest indicating more competition for exports to the US. Not a welcome scenario. When it rains it pours as they say. It is my belief the market will continue to work lower. Perhaps the market now has a job to do. That is to cut next years bean acres in favor of corn, wheat and perhaps some cotton. It will be difficult to cut into the carry overs much however.
The corn was quiet. The market will wait for the Nov report to see if there is a lower production number. It is my thought this will be the catalyst to move higher if in fact the yield is reduced. The demand remains a friendly input. The wheat is attempting to hold up. The wheat to me is not yet a bull. There are many calling for this. Perhaps we are transitioning to that. However, just not yet. Look for opportunities on small breaks in the corn to add bull option trades, quantify the risk.
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