AG TIME The Ups and Downs by John Walsh
Sep 25, 2018
The beans and meal were up sharply early. The why, in my opinion, the Argentinian country is essentially on strike. Transport in the mix. This is not unusual and typically lasts for a relatively short period. Getting back to the reality of the market. The Argentinian is buying US beans at will. They will either mark them up and sell them to China and whomever or crush them at a tremendous profit and sell the protein. No protein shortage. To the contrary, we will soon be swimming in protein. The Black Sea oil seed crops, just fine. Growing. This equates to more feed. There was another African swine flu outbreak yesterday, in yet another province. This was a small facility. It seems logical that it is only a matter of time until a large operation witnesses an outbreak. The breeding stock year on year in China is estimated down 4.8%. Why is this not a key article? I have no credible answer. A thought – the producer of animals, in my opinion, should be hand to mouth for feed needs. It is my belief meal will enter a protracted down period. The US harvest is rolling. The pace is swift in spite of some moisture. The available beans could be a catalyst.
The corn rallied again today. There was a large purchase by Mexico today. The US is in the cat bird seat for some months as the cheapest supplier in the world. The next key to watch will be the South American weather. At present, there are not any issues. It is my belief the corn is due a rally without a weather issue. The height could be determined by the global outlook. Can the global stocks rebound?
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