The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
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The markets rallied today. the focus was the new trade deal(s) between the US and Canada. Also the deal with Mexico. Another victory for the Trump administration. Now on to Europe and the China situation. This may take a bit of time. Especially the China portion. But who knows. The report Friday added more to the soy balance. In my opinion regardless of the China trade spat and when it wraps up, the US and the globe for that matter has too many beans. In addition, the Chinese financial situation is slowing. This doesn’t bode well for long term demand increases. There are some major macro changes, yet it seems to me most people want to focus on micro thoughts. The prices are reflective of the real carry situation. Not the fact that the US is fighting with China. I will say again, in my opinion the meal market shows no indication of a bull market. This is a created perception, plain and simple, in my opinion. Follow the money. The weather will be key in the next 10 days. Then the USDA report. The yield will be key here. Do we add yield.
The Corn had a nice day, rejecting Friday’s activity. The report out of the way the market will eye the weather the next couple of weeks. The weather can offer support. The demand can offer support. The global weather will be key in the short term. The long run will need to watch the overall corn vs bean relationship. This will dictate the acreage next year. It is my thought the corn will appreciate here. The question is how much. The weather for feedgrains around the world is less than ideal. This will need to be monitored on a continual basis.
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