AG TIME Watch the Weather by John Walsh

Published on: 01:23AM Oct 04, 2018

The soy had a rally of late. Perhaps this is coming to a close. I have suggested to look at Nov 2019 about 920 to start hedging. It is conceivable that the market could offer two cycles of sell off, and rally there. It is my belief 920 will look like a rich price. Regarding market thoughts. The US will eye the USDA report next Thursday. The estimates potentially place the production higher than the last report. The global outlook remains promising. The Brazilian planting pace is up to this point record or near record. The acreage is expanding. This will mean an early harvest with greater supply. Many more exports. There are some things to watch in vegoil. The demand for soyoil is on the rise. In addition, palm should or could be marking a low. The vegoil market in general is very cheap related to crude oil. This could indicate larger blending rates in the long run. Especially as crude continues to appreciate. The outlook for soy is a difficult one given the huge increases in production, and the record global supply.

The corn closed lower today. The weather is the near term key fundamental. There is some talk of a potential issue where corn may be left in the fields for some time. It is a bit early to worry about that. However, the forecasts do show continued rain. This would create a nearby issue given the current demand scenario. The USDA number on Thursday, next, will be key. The demand base no doubt is intact. The issue has been the continued increase in yield. There is no real shortage of corn. Just the potential to tighten the balance sheet up. This, in my opinion, could support corn and offer one more rally. If the yield increases again, and the weather moderates, the window starts to close for a more significant appreciation. We are at a somewhat critical point in the corn market. Let's see what happens.

It is my belief that the long term outlook in the market is essential to maximizing opportunity. Without a long term outlook people are just throwing darts, in my opinion. There are no guarantees in commodities. Just well thought out ideas and strict money management that can pay dividends. To discuss a long term thought feel free to send an email to [email protected] or call 800 993 5449.