AG TIME Whats the Difference by John Walsh
Oct 22, 2018
I have been traveling since last Wednesday, therefore no blog posts. I was fortunate enough to have been in Des Moines, Omaha, and Lincoln. All three exceptional cities populated with nice people. The weather was excellent, the Nebraska game equally as excellent. Thanks to everyone for the hospitality.
It is my thought that the opportunities that present themselves now, more than ever, need to be taken advantage of. There is a lot of banter regarding the bean carryover. The debate if the carry is 850 million or 1 billion. What’s the difference? We had 250 million bushels three years ago. The numbers are off the charts. The weather for harvest is good. The Southern Hemisphere is looking very good, making rapid planting progress. It is my belief that the beans, without a resolution to China issues, will trade sub $8.00 per bu. I have also suggested that new crop beans need to be sold as well. 2019 above the current $920 represent value. Some items for consideration. The Chinese have approved India to import rapeseed meal. The soymeal should be approved shortly. There are more and more African Swine Flu outbreaks. It is my belief this will continue to expand. The meal in my opinion has some structural issues, as well as expanded competition moving forward. Let’s see what happens.
The Corn was able to close higher despite the break in Wheat. The Corn has a decent fundamental story. It is my thought that if you really look at the corn numbers they have done nothing but decline nominally. It is possible that the nov crop production shows a decline in production. That is my personal thought. I also believe that the exports could be understated by approx 100 million bu. This would keep corn in a friendly scenario. There would need to be a major weather issue globally to have a big market. But a nice rally from these levels is conceivable. Quantify your risk.
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” A FOOLS BRAIN DIGESTS PHILOSOPHY INTO FOLLY, SCIENCE INTO SUPERSTITION, AND ART INTO PEDANTRY, HENCE UNIVERSITY EDUCATION ” GEORGE BERNARD SHAW