Ag - Week End Wrap

Published on: 03:25AM Mar 05, 2018

SOY COMPLEX: The Markets saw a two sided trade on Friday. The old crop soy remains supported by the Argentinian weather situation. There appears to be a few chances for rain in the future. The question now is what is the crop size. Estimates range in ARG 40-45mmt now. The Brazilian crop as high as 117 mmt. The yields apparently are huge. There remains an ample amount of available oilseeds globally. This rally has been pushed by funds and has really helped the producer out. The price differential to corn should tilt the acreage in favor of beans, and push planted acres over to beans over corn. 92-93 million bean acres now become possible. A rare scenario. It is important to look at new crop here at 1040 as an opportunity for hedgers. I'm not saying we can't go higher. Perhaps, but these prices are a game changer from 3 months ago. Please take advantage. The meal near $400 will be interesting to see if demand moves to other protein sources. It is certain with crush margins this lofty the grind should remain high. One idea, buy july 1020 puts, sell nov 11 bean calls with a higher strike purchased for protection. This allows an opportunity to catch a reversal down. Selling the calls has a larger risk than buying the puts.

CORN:The corn has possibly put in a near term top. I have looked for dec 18 price of 406. Friday we reached 405. A pullback may present the opportunity to buy for an advance into the summer. I have spoken all week of the potential for corn to have a friendly scenario going forward. Friendly, not wildly bullish.

There are ample opportunities in the market. Give call or email to discuss.Enjoy the weekend.

John Walsh
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