Grain Markets Find Support on Trade Optimism

Published on: 05:21AM Nov 26, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 26, 2019.

Grain markets are mixed on potentially tighter world supplies as weather concerns continue to affect U.S. harvest and South American planting.  Analysts also noted weather issues, including dry conditions in Russia and excessive moisture elsewhere.

USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn harvest rating at 84% complete (85% expected, 76% complete last week, 96% 5-year average).  Soybean harvest rating at 94% complete (95% expected, 91% last week, 97% 5-year average).  Winter wheat conditions at 52% GTE (52% GTE expected, 52% last week, 55% last year).

China and the U.S. are "moving closer to agreeing" on a "phase one" trade deal, the Global Times, a publisher run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily reported.  "The two sides have basically reached broad consensus for the phase one agreement," Gao Lingyun, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing who is close to the trade talks, told the Global Times.

USDA weekly grain export inspections recap for the week ended 11/21/19 showed corn exports at 605,000 tonnes (expecting 550,000 – 750,000 tonnes), soybean exports at 1.943 million metric tonnes (1.2 – 1.8 mmt) and wheat exports of 421,000 tonnes (300,000 – 500,000 tonnes).

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a version of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that House Democrats could back was "within range" but that they needed to conduct a final review.  "We are within range of a substantially improved agreement for America's workers. Now, we need to see our progress in writing from the Trade Representative for final review," Pelosi said in a statement.

Canadian National Railway Co.’s strike entered its eighth day today, sending further shocks through the economy with grain shipments scuttled and layoffs planned at fertilizer producers and an auto shipment terminal.  Meanwhile, frustrated farmers facing propane shortages dumped wet corn in front of the prime minister's local Quebec office and pleaded for the government to step in.

Chinese buyers purchased at least 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans last week due to trade uncertainties with the U.S. that sent them rushing to lock in supplies in South America.  The purchases were for delivery when the new harvest hits the market early next year.

USDA said commodity exporters must disclose sales of hog carcasses, giving officials and traders more insight into a surge of Chinese pork buying.  "These changes will help to provide transparency and eliminate confusion for the industry," said meat packer, Tyson Foods Inc.

E.U. plans to allow more U.S. beef imports cleared a key hurdle when E.U. lawmakers specializing in trade backed the move, which is likely to ease transatlantic tensions.  Members of the parliament's international trade committee voted 26-7, with four abstentions, for an agreement that will see U.S. farmers fill the majority of an existing 45,000-tonne allotment.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.67 and select up 0.59.  The CME feeder index is 145.33.  Pork cut-out values were up 0.94.