Grain Markets Mostly Higher, Corn Harvest Remains Behind

Published on: 09:59AM Nov 19, 2019

Several U.S. States Declare Emergencies Related to Propane Shortages  

  • So far, at least nine states across the Midwest have declared emergencies over regional shortages of propane.
  • Propane is used to dry crops, which is in particular need this year given the late harvest and unfavorable harvest season overall.
  • While propane is not in short supply across the nation, there are shortages in specific locations.
  • The EIA most recently reported average wholesale propane prices were flat compared with last year.
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: While there are regional shortages of propane, there is not a national shortage which will likely keep a lid on significant strength across the nation.  Although wholesale propane prices at the national level are flat compared with last year, prices have risen the past few weeks.  This also is the case across the Midwest.  The state of emergencies underscores the regional shortage issues.       

FBN Advisory

Crop Progress Update: U.S. Corn Harvest Dragging Along

  • U.S. corn harvest advanced 10 points to 76% complete.
  • The average pace is 92%.
  • North Dakota is 23% harvested while Michigan is 39% and Wisconsin is 44%.
  • Soybean harvest was 91%, near the average at 95%.
  • Cotton was 68% harvested with Texas at 56%.
  • Cotton harvest is slightly ahead of average pace.
  • Sunflower harvest is notably behind with 47% cut relative to the 83% average.  The average is dragged down by the Dakotas.
  • Winter wheat plantings are 95% complete, in line with average.
  • Winter wheat was rated at 52% good-to-excellent, down week over week.
  • FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer:  The delayed harvest seasons have contributed to basis opportunities to producers with basis bids mostly above a year ago for corn and soybeans.  But it also has resulted in quality concerns and additional drying.  Producers are encouraged to take advantage of basis opportunities.  Upside in futures is usually muted when basis levels are elevated.  The decline in winter wheat conditions is not alarming.  Condition ratings prior to dormancy have limited impact on final production totals.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)