The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
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The Soy Complex looks to start higher tonight. The soy has been and will be led by meal. The weather in Argentina has participants worried that the global supply of meal will be hurt given the weather scenario. This is overblown, but the market will rally until a comfort from rain is received. The reality in my opinion is that Brazilian crop is getting bigger. The US, Brazil and China all will more than make up for any short fall in exportable meal. The higher we go, 1) the more we will hurt exports. There is a plentiful supply of competitive oilseeds. 2) The larger opportunity presented to the commercial for hedging opportunities. Please use these rallies to catch up on old crop sales. Also, make new crop sales for 2018 at or above 1015 nov 2018.
The Corn has some room to continue to work higher. We are the cheapest in the world at present. The Brazilian 2nd crop is struggling. The global carry is in decline. As stated before, no run away market, but an opportunity to sell in profitable levels. This is happening. Look at dec 2018 above 4.00 Take some sure money. Gamble with a small percent by setting a floor through puts and let the market ride. Difficult markets. High costs. The market will give and take very quickly. There exists a small percentage chance, with a summer weather issue, corn could spark a nice rally into the mid to high fours. 450 plus. However there is much risk so play the odds.
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