Just waiting for Uncle Sam to arrive

Published on: 10:29AM Aug 07, 2019

It would appear that grain and soy markets have settled down into a new range and will probably be content to remain here as we move toward the August reports that will be released next Monday.  Trade survey estimates are filtering in and here are the averages that we have received thus far.  The estimate for planted corn acreage is 87.8 million, which would be down 3.9 million from the currently in use figure.  With an average projected yield of 164.9 bpa, this is expected to produce a crop of 13.170 billion bushels, which would be down 705 million from the last estimate. Looking at beans, the expected planted acreage came through at 80.95 million, up just 950,000 from the current estimate. The average yield is expected to be 47.5 bpa, bringing us a crop of 3.793 billion, which would be 52 million bushels lower than the July figure.  The average estimate for All Wheat production is 1.927 billion bushels.  Of this 1.295 billion is winter, 810 million is hard red, 256.5 million soft red, 227.5 million white, 571 million other spring, and 57.5 million durum. As far as domestic ending stocks, the average estimates for 2018/19 have corn at 2.389 billion, beans 1.066 and for the 2019/20 crop year corn is expected to drop to 1.595 billion, beans to 816 million and wheat at 998.5 million. Finally, for the world ending stocks numbers, 2018/19 corn is expected to show 329.84 MMT, beans 113.27 MMT and wheat 275.02 MMT.   Then for 2019/2020 corn at 290.09, beans of 104.77 and wheat at 284.08.

In a separate survey conducted in Brazil, analysts are projecting that farmers in that nation will increase soybean acreage this coming season by 2.3%.  This would bring the total planted to 36.7 million hectares or 90.68 million acres.  Needless to say, mother nature will have much to say once planting begins, and as we here are all too aware, she can dramatically change the best-laid plans.  That said, with the strong U.S. Dollar and a government which is promoting expansion, the prospects would appear realistic.  

More African Swine Fever stories in the news as the ag minister from Bulgaria has stated concern that the entire 600,000 breeding industry in that country could be lost to the disease.  To date, there have been 30 confirmed outbreaks with around 130,000 pigs culled.  One of the problems they have confronted is that fact that many hog operations are little more than small backyard farms, which can often become infected by wild boars.  Last month the ministry began paying a levy to kill wild boars, but obviously, this solution comes across as too little too late. 

In response to the announcement from China that they will no longer be purchasing U.S. farm good, President Trump, as well as his economic advisor Larry Kudlow, are vowing to provide more support to American Farmers.  To date, the administration has authorized aid payments of up to $28 billion, of which $8.6 billion has already been issued.   

Last but not least, while not enormous, it was nice to see an export sale announced in the daily system this morning.  165,000n MT of beans were sold to unknown destinations.