5 Years Ago This Month - Top of Used Equipment Market
Dec 22, 2017
Ah, I remember that sale.
Going through old pictures on an old laptop this afternoon in advance of our oldest daughter's marriage next week, I stumbled across a picture of a sharp John Deere 8310 tractor and it jogged my memory.
"I remember this 8310."
It sold on a December 12, 2012 (12/12/12) farm auction in Genoa, IL. Bright, sunny winter day. Turns out that time period right about 5 years ago this week, December 2012, was about the absolute top of the used farm equipment. Used Values remained high through March of 2013 and then the correction began when commodity prices fell Spring 2013.
But the $$'s were definitely flowing on 12/12/12 at that Genoa, IL farm auction.
The 2000 John Deere 8310 with 1,209 hours pictured below sold for $151,000. A record sale price back then by a whopping $46,000. Yes, I said $46K. Amazing. Still to this day, 5 years later, a record high auction sale price by that same $46,000 spread. I recall standing on the back of the 8310 as it sold and filming for our Machinery Pete Youtube channel (http://www.youtube.com/machinerypete). Right after the gavel fell I felt a tug on the back of my coat..."Pete, did that really just happen?" Yep, it sure did.
Here's look at the 10 highest ever auction sale prices on John Deere 8310's:
Highest Auction Prices on John Deere 8310 Tractors
* Data by http://www.machinerypete.com
The other red hot seller on that 12/12/12 farm auction in Genoa, IL was the 2000 Case IH 2366 combine with 623 sep. hours that went for $135,000 (with no heads). Here's a picture of it:
$135,000 was then and is still the 2nd highest ever auction sale price on a CaseIH 2366 combine. Here's a look at the highest sale prices I've seen on 2366's...note the number of 2366's sold during 2012:
Highest Auction Prices on Case IH 2366 Combines
* Data by http://www.machinerypete.com
Timing any particular market of course is next to impossible, often folly to try. Best just to be as informed as possible and keep aware of the daily realities at play and monitor the hard cash prices..."What's it Worth Today?" The good news is that the used farm equipment market has found a "soft bottom" here the past 2 years. I began to see used values solidify in early 2016 after falling mightily from mid 2013 all the way through 2015. 2014 was particularly harsh. Used values dipped approx. 20% across the board on all types of large late model used farm equipment. But again, solidified the past 2 years now.
Here's a visual look at what I'm talking about from my Machinery Pete "Used Values Index" quarterly report. This is my take, based on all the auction sale price data I've been compiling on all types of equipment for over 28 years now, on where we're currently at with used equipment valuations. This is from the 3rd Qtr. 2017 Machinery Pete "Used Values Index" report:
* From Machinery Pete "Used Values Index" quarterly report 3rd Qtr. '17
So how do I read this graph here now in late 2017? That it is still a very good time, if you are able, to upgrade into late model used farm equipment. Used values have stabilized at a lower level vs. 5-9 years ago. In fact, let you in on a little secret here...very strong auction sale prices during November-December 2017 likely will push my 4th Qtr. Machinery Pete "Used Values Index" up just a bit.
Now I know there does not appear to be any sign of positive push for rising commodity prices out there right now, but when I look at our Machinery Pete "Used Values Index" report having basically leveled off and solidified going on 2 full years now, makes me wonder what will happen when commodity prices do finally push upwards again and more $$ begins to flow through the system....my take is at that point a LOT of pent up buyer demand (about 5 years and counting right now) would be released immediately, in both the used market and also the new farm equipment market.
Which again, points me to say that if you're able, now is still a wonderful opportunity to upgrade into late model used equipment.