Market Commentary for 7/6/18
Its official, the US is now in a trade war. Last week some said a last minute negotiation could stop it, but that didn't happen. It’s uncertain if this will last a few days, weeks, months or years. No one really knows what's going to happen, so the market doesn't know how to react.
Good weather continues throughout the Midwest. At this rate record yields are a real possibility, meaning current prices are in line. It's now a waiting game through the rest of summer.
Beans have been looking for a bottom. Time will tell if it was Thursday, as prices weren't affected by the actual tariff news and shot back up on Friday. Technically beans are due for a rally, but the rally on Friday could have been too quick and might be followed by a re-testing of the lows. Some say tariffs will drive Nov bean prices to $8, while others say the world needs our beans and, to get around the tariffs, will ship beans to other countries first then to China making $10 Nov futures realistic. Out-guessing the bean market this year will be impossible and probably only the lucky will be on the right side.
For the week corn is up only 1 cent while beans finished up closer to 14 cents.
New Trades #1 & # 2 - Sold calls
On 6/18/18 when Sep corn was near $3.65 I sold the following calls:
- Sold an Aug $3.80 call for 9 cents – expires July 27th on 5% of my ’17 production
- Sold a Sep $3.95 call for 9 cents – expires Aug 24th on 5% of my ’17 production
- If corn is trading below the strike prices when these options expire - I keep the 9 cent premium and add it to another trade later.
- If corn is trading above the strike prices when these options expire - I have to sell corn for the strike price PLUS I keep the premium. This means prices of $3.89 & $4.04 on Sep futures.
Trade Thoughts And Rationale
Since I still needed to sell some of my remaining '17 corn, but don’t want to sell $3.65 Sep futures, these trades allow me to get values close to $4 if we rally some. If the market stays sideways, I keep the 9 cent premiums.
New Trade #3 – Sold Straddle
On 6/13/18 when Sep corn was around $3.85, I sold an Aug $4 straddle (selling both a put and call) and bought a $3.70 Aug put, collecting 30 cents total on 10% of my 2017 production.
What Does This Mean?
- If Sep corn is $4 on 7/27/18 I keep all of the 30 cents
- Every penny corn is below $4 I get less premium until $3.70. With the $3.70 put I won't lose anything on the trade, but I don’t have any grain protected to the downside or sold.
- Every penny higher than $4.00 I get less premium until $4.30
- $4.30 or higher - I have to make a corn sale at $4.00 against Sep futures, but I still get to keep the 30 cents, so it’s like selling $4.30
Trade Thoughts And Rationale
On 6/13/18 my rational: This trade is most profitable in a sideways market. With the current good weather forecasts, I'd be happy collecting the premium to add to another opportunity later. However, if the market drops significantly I'm also protected from losing money or having to buy corn back with this trade. With what I know today, if the market rallies I'll be very happy with a $4.30 sold price. I'm comfortable with any market outcome of this trade.
My thoughts on 7/6/18: Given current prices, I may not end up making any money on this trade. While mildly disappointing, I knew this was a possibility when I made the trade. I still have 20 days before this trade expires and if June taught me anything is that a lot can happen in a short time.
New Trade #4 - Sold Straddle
On 6/18/18 (5 days after trade #3) and after a 20 cent drop in corn with Sep futures around $3.65, I sold an Aug $3.70 straddle (sold both the put and the call) and collected 29 cents total on 10% of my production
What Does This Mean for this particular trade?
- If Sep corn is at $3.70 at expiration on 7/27/18 I keep all of the 29 cents
- Every penny corn is below $3.70, I get less premium until $3.41. At this point, I either have to buy back futures (i.e. remove a sale) or take a penny loss for every penny under $3.41 on the trade.
- Every penny higher than $3.70 I get less premium until $3.99
- $3.99 or higher - I have to sell my corn for $3.70 against Sep futures, but I still keep the 29 cents, so it’s like selling $3.99
Trade Thoughts And Rationale
On 6/18/18 my rational: Like Trade #3, this trade is most profitable in a sideways market. But unlike Trade #3, there are no puts in place to protect my downside. I think a 20-30 cent range is likely. Since I'm behind in my sales and I want the market to rally, I would be fine potentially losing a little on the upside potential. Regardless, this trade only represents 10% of my '17 production, so I'm comfortable with any outcome.
My thoughts on 7/6/18: At this point with the unknown tariff issue and widespread perfect weather, I'm not sure the 29 cent range is going to be wide enough. Like Trade #3, while I'm always mildly disappointed when trades don't work out like I think they will, I'm still comfortable with my decisions and all potential outcomes. Again with 20 days of trading left means I have time for things to change.
Offsetting Trades And The Importance Of Keeping Detailed Records
I always suggest that farmers keep detailed notes of each trade, including rationale and when different trades cancel out portions of other trades. In the above examples, since I bought $3.70 puts in trade #3 and sold $3.70 puts in trade #4 my hedge account will actually show that I have no $3.70 put position in place. Without detailed notes for each trade, a month from now when the trades expire, I may not remember all of the details and intentions of the trades.
In this example, the market changed dramatically in those 5 days, so my goals and strategy needed to shift as well. While each trade is independent of each other, and on the surface may seem to conflict with each other, they really don't. Both trades ladder up to a larger overall marketing strategy and philosophy.
Why It’s Important For Me To Have A Marketing Philosophy
Given the uncertainty of the market year after year and the widespread variances of analyst information on the markets, it's easy for farmers to think they need to change their marketing strategies every year to keep up. Or worse, analysis paralysis sets in, and farmers do nothing, unsure what the correction decision is.
That's why it’s important for me to have a marketing philosophy, which lays out the my guiding principles when developing my marketing strategies and trades. By adhering to these principals and guidelines continually I can make better decisions for my farm operation. Following provides the foundation for my marketing philosophy.
Sell an Average Size Crop at an Average Price That Would be at a Profitable Level
This may sound obvious, but after a 12 month sideways market at unprofitable prices, it's easy to consider selling under breakeven levels. Still the important words here are “AVERAGE”. Every trade I do doesn't have to be profitable, but in the end, my final position must show a profitable price point every year. This is much more difficult in practice.
Be Ready To Take Advantage Of Opportunities
While the market can run below breakeven prices for while, it will eventually rally to profitable levels. When that happens I need to be ready to take advantage, because the market can fall just as quickly and easily. At the same time I also worry about prices rallying to an extremely high level too. I like to leave a little upside potential just in case something totally unexpected comes along as well.
Limit My Risk Exposure
I understand the difference between speculating (i.e. gambling) and hedging. And while there will always be uncertainty in the markets, I limit my exposure to risk by avoiding trades that "bet" big on one certain market direction.
Understand And Be Willing To Accept Every Possible Market Outcome For Each Trade Placed
At any time there is a chance the market could go up, down or sideways. Therefore, for each trade I place I understand what my final outcome is for each scenario. I then need to be comfortable with any outcome. If I'm not, I don't place the trade. Period.
Understand That No One Can Predict The Market
While I try to do trades that are most profitable given the most likely marketplace scenario happening, no one knows what is really going to happen. There are just too many variables driving the market, that it's impossible. The only thing I know for sure about the market is that it will continue to surprise me.
I Won't Always Be Right
I wish I always sold at the right time. And while I think I do well making decisions generally, sometimes a trade doesn't go as planned. When that happens, I review the details of the trade, learn from it, and move on. It’s also important to look at how the market reacts as an exception or the rule. 2012 will always be that exception year. The way the market has behaved from 2013 until now seems to be more along the line of the rules. It also seems that every year will have its own little exception as well. It seems like we might be in one of those right now.
I Always Have to Remember I Have More Grain To Sell
All too often farmers want to "hit the home run" by selling all of their grain at the market high. While selling at profitable prices is important, waiting too long to sell may mean a "strike out." It's just not realistic that a farmer will always sell everything at the top, so that shouldn't be the goal. Instead, I remind myself that even if I sell and prices keep going up, I still have more grain to sell (i.e. next year's crop). So, I can take advantage of upcoming rallies, it just may be for future grain.
Play The Odds
While the market can go up, down or sideways at any time, there are factors that can often increase the likelihood of one of the scenarios. And while every farmer wants prices to rally, market conditions may suggest a rally isn't the most likely outcome. Sometimes sideways markets are the most likely, so placing trades that maximize opportunities when this happens can be a good decision.
Be Open And Consider Alternative Solutions
Being open to considering alternative solutions that allow for increased profits during an unprofitable market can help too. If the market suggests a long-term sideways market is ahead then doing trades on a portion of the crop, like selling calls or straddles as mentioned above, can help with being profitable when the market isn't moving.
There are a lot of marketing philosophies out there, and what works for me, may not work for someone else. Some farmers don't have the same values and goals as I do, and that's ok. The important thing is to find a marketing philosophy that works for you and your personality and goals, and then use it to set a foundation to make all of your marketing decisions.
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Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
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