MGEX analyzed China’s domestic consumption, production and importation of soybeans. MGEX also analyzed the production and consumption of US soybeans. Take the following into consideration: China soybean production is not experiencing a growth trend; China’s soybean imports and domestic consumption are experiencing growth. Fortunately the U.S. production is on the rise.
Since the 2003-2004 marketing year, the U.S. share of soybean exports to China have ranged from 29% to 45.6%,with an average export of 36%. But since the 2007-2008 marketing year, that number has grown at an annual rate of 3%.
The annual U.S. production rate of growth has been 5.28% in a range of -15% to 13.2%. U.S. consumption of its soybeans is in a range of -6.8% to 15% at an annual rate of growth of 1.36%
China’s soybean imports have been in a range of 1.4% to its early high of 52.6% with an annual rate of growth of 20%. China continues to be the U.S.’s strongest importer of soybeans.
China’s consumption of soybeans has been in a range of 3.2% to 17%, with an annual rate of growth of 10.5%. As long as the Chinese farm policy continues to exclude soybean assistance, it will be up to the U.S., Argentina and Brazil to supply 1.3 billion people, livestock and poultry with needs.
U.S. soybean exports to China are up 17% in the 2010-2011 marketing year versus the same period last marketing year.
At 19.505 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans purchased thus far, China is no doubt watching with keen interest the South America development of soybeans. MGEX strongly encourages knowing the daily weather conditions within the Brazilian and Argentinian growing regions, and how it may impact U.S. soybean prices.
In conclusion, be aware of the timing of weather developments in South America, as well as long range Chinese consumption of soybeans.