Published on: 13:43PM Jan 28, 2011
MGEX analyzed the performance of export sales, one of the few items measured on a regular basis. Each Thursday, the USDA reports export sales and shipments for wheat, corn, soybeans and other agricultural products. Although the trade may not present a great deal of respect to the weekly sales, it is uncanny how the trade reacts.
Most other demand data is a month old before it makes its way into the supply-demand pipeline.
As a percentage of export sales to annual production, the chart below shows soybean sales continuing to trend higher, wheat nearly flat and corn lower.
Wheat export sales as a percent of annual production have pushed through major trend line resistance, with soybeans and corn holding their respective trend lines.
Within the wheat, 2010-2011 Hard Red Spring wheat export sales are 75% higher than year ago levels and 49% higher than the 5 year average. Durum wheat export sales are 2% higher than year ago levels and 14% higher than the 5 year average. Hard Red Winter wheat export sales for 2011 are 64% higher than year ago levels and 47% above the five year average. Soft Red Winter wheat export sales for 2011 are 13% less than year ago levels and 35% less than the five year average.
Contained within the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report are probability studies which suggest corn weekly export sale estimates are 59% above the final USDA WASDE report, 41% above for soybeans and wheat.