Published on: 14:51PM Oct 07, 2011
Will domestic demand for Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRSW) increase or decrease going forward? What about export demands? Let’s look at history for a possible answer.
Dating back to the 1984-1985 market year, USDA data shows an increasing demand trend for total domestic use, including the 2011-2012 market year. In 1984-1985 the total domestic use of HRSW was 172 million bushels. That number increased to a high of 339 million bushels in 2000-2001. USDA estimates total domestic use in the 2011-12 market year of 277 million bushels. That represents an upward trend since the recent low of 202 million bushels in 2002-2003
As for HRSW exports, USDA estimates 2011-2012 market year exports to be 260 million bushels versus the average of the previous five years of 263 million bushels. Within that timeframe, 2008-2009 recorded the lowest exports of 210 million bushels.
As the chart does show long term trend for total domestic use is increasing at a faster rate
Also of interest, HRSW ending stocks since the 1985-1986 market year for HRSW have
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Information used to compile this update is from publicly available sources. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a trading recommendation of MGEX, its employee or its members. For informational purposes only.