MGEX analyzed the yield per acre change in bushels within the USDA WASDE report from its October to its November release and discovered the following:
The very easiest to track is the wheat change as there has only been one since the year 2000 which occurred in 2004. Based on this history it is unlikely USDA will make another change given this year’s harvest performance.
USDA history has been a toss up with respect to the corn as there have been an equal number of increased versus decreased years. If there is a pattern to analyze you will notice in the most recent four years, the bushels per acre change have all been lower for corn. You will also be interested to know the 2010 harvest pace is very similar to 2005. The trade anticipates a bushel per acre drop of .9 from the October to the November WASDE to a level of 154.9.
With respect to soybeans, USDA has increased yield six out of the past ten from the October WASDE to the month of November. Once again the harvest pace is uniquely similar to 2005 when USDA increased the yield. There are not the definitive trends in soybeans which occurred for corn. The trade is anticipating the bushel per acre increase of .2 from the October to the November WASDE to a level of 44.6.
In conclusion be aware of the changes USDA has made for corn, beans and wheat as well as a harvest pace which is very similar to 2005.