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Much Cooler Weather on the Way

Published on: 10:27AM Jul 22, 2019

Ukraine’s APK-Informa Update’s Ukraine’s Wheat Production Forecast

  • The agency looks for production to come in at 27.5 million tonnes.

  • That compares with USDA’s July forecast at 29 million.

  • Both forecasts would be well above last year’s harvest near 25 million.

  • This is key to U.S. wheat exports as Ukraine is expected to export large volumes of wheat in the coming months, hampering U.S. exports.

  • As with last year, U.S. exports likely will be stronger later in the crop year as Russia, Ukraine, and the EU export large volumes in July-December. 

  • What It Means For The US Farmer: Interest in U.S. wheat from an international perspective likely will increase the second half of the crop year when supplies for other exporters are lighter.  While Ukraine’s harvest is above year-ago levels, supplies are not expected to be large enough to limit U.S. exports to volumes to below 2018/19 levels. Harvest progress is expected to keep U.S. futures pressured in the near term but strong prices are likely into 2020.

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Much Cooler Weather on the Way

  • Much of the corn-belt should see much milder temps in the coming days after facing some blistering heat last week.

  • High reading should be anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees cooler thanks to a shift in the jet stream bring colder air down from the north. Highs in most major crop regions will be in the upper 70s to low 80s out to July 28.

  • Corn pollination was at 17% last week, look for the crop to leap to 55% this week as a hot stretch of weather has accelerated crop development.   
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