New Crop Estimates Enter Market

Published on: 06:52AM Sep 05, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 5, 2019.

Grain Markets were mixed overnight as traders monitor extended weather maps, closely looking for signs of an early cold snap which could impact the late-planted US crop. As recent crop tours and survey's have noted, crop maturity is on everyones mind, and an early frost or freeze could quickly change the landscape.

Allendale’s Annual Acreage Survey found US corn yields at 167.71 bushels per acre, and soybean yields at 46.13 bpa. Total production is estimated at 13.755 billion bushels for corn, and 3.499 billion bushels for soybeans. No adjustments were made for early frosts. If you missed the live webinar release of the data, you can still hear the recording and get full survey details, here. Thank you to everyone who participated this year, we appreciate your help!

Argentine farmers, anxious about an increasingly murky political outlook and economic turmoil, are turning towards soy over more expensive corn to cut costs, a shift that could impact next season's harvest in one of the world's top grain exporters. (Reuters)

INTL FCStone raised its estimate corn yields to 168.4 bushels per acre, and also increased soybean yields to 48.3 bpd. They see total production at 13.809 billion bushels for corn, and 3.661 billion for soybeans.

IKON Commodities, an Australian brokerage firm, estimates the countries wheat crop at 19 million tonnes, well below ABARES (the Australian USDA) June estimate of 21.2 million tonnes. The firm cites three years of drought for the drop.

Argentina's Ag Ministry estimates the 2019/20 wheat crop at 21 million tonnes, after the country's farmers planted more than 16 million acres of the grain. Assuming normal weather, a record crop is expected.

Weekly export sales, normally out on Thursday mornings, will be released tomorrow morning instead due to Monday's Labor Day Holiday.

The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced they would give subsidies to farms that had culled hogs due to ASF every six months instead of the current one year plan. They also announced they would increase incentives to major hog producing counties to increase production.

A three day holiday obviously means a good dip in pork production this week. However, with Hurricane Dorian still in the mix, some have questioned slaughter numbers for Friday and Saturday.

Tyson Foods' fire-damaged beef-processing plant will likely be back online by January, CEO Noel White says, and some processing has already resumed in a portion of the plant untouched by last month's fire.

Chinese health inspectors will be visiting four Brazilian beef plants starting tomorrow. They will potentially approve those plants for export to mainland China. Brazil is the world's #2 beef producer after the US, and the #4 beef exporter in the world.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down .01 and select down 2.67. The CME feeder index is 138.84.  Pork cut-out values were down 1.74.