NOPA Soy Crush Down from May

Published on: 08:57AM Jul 17, 2019



NOPA June Soy Crush Down from May and Last Year

  • NOPA estimated June crush at 148.8 million bushels, which was below May’s estimate at 154.8 million.  
  • Monthly crush declined for a third consecutive month and was below average trade expectations.   
  • June’s crush total was the lowest monthly volume since September 2017.  
  • Meal demand has slowed.  On the interior, basis levels have weakened while on the export front, FOB meal spreads favor Argentine exports.  
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN, we believe that while soybean crush has slowed recently, crush will increase in the coming crop year.  FBN looks for crush to be up about 65 million bushels for 2019/20.  Meal basis could remain under pressure in the near term with FOB prices favoring Argentina.  

FBN Advisory

US Corn Silking Progress Further Advanced Despite the Late Emergence 

  • In USDA’s latest Crop Progress report, the crop was reported as 17 percent silking, which was notably behind the 42-percent average. 
  • At 17 percent silking, the crop was about five days behind the median value, dating back to 1981.  
  • At 17 percent emerged, the crop was 10 days behind the median value.
  • Silking progress is not as far behind as emergence was for the same percent complete and is more in line with planting progress deviations. 
  • At 17 percent planted this crop year, the US corn crop was four days behind the median.
  • What It Means For The US Farmer: At FBN, we are concerned about the yield potential of the US corn crop.  With the crop entering the silking phase and hot temperatures in the forecast, there is risk that yield damage will be present. The crop condition is significantly below average.  Southern counties in Nebraska and much of Kansas are forecast to reach high temperatures greater than 95 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming days.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)