Severe Weather Threatens Southern States

Published on: 00:40AM Nov 07, 2011

The Fall Severe Weather Season is about to kick into high gear. Last week the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast was digging out from under a record shattering snowstorm. This week the southern states are under the threat of a large severe weather outbreak including the possibility of tornadoes.

Weather forecast models suggest a severe weather outbreak will take place later today, Monday, November 7 and continue into Tuesday across the south-central United States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlined a primary target threat area for Monday extending from southern Kansas into West-Central Texas. Tuesday’s threat zone extends from central Missouri south to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas.
 
Storm Prediction Center threat map detailing the target area for severe weather on Monday, November 7.
 
The predicted severe weather outbreak unofficially launches what weather forecasters call the fall or second severe weather season. November traditionally marks the beginning of the fall severe weather season. Unlike spring severe weather season, which typically occurs across the Plains states, fall severe weather season tends to occur in the southeastern states.
 
Hail-producing thunderstorms are expected to fire as early as Monday morning across Oklahoma and Texas. As the afternoon unfolds, conditions will become ripe for severe weather to develop. The SPC reports the highest likelihood of severe storms will be in an area across western Oklahoma and Texas extending from Woodward, OK south to Abilene, TX and as far east as Oklahoma City, OK and Wichita Falls, TX.
 
Forecast models suggest there will be significant lift and shear over the primary threat area. This suggests the possibility of super cell thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. 
 
The main threat area is expected to shift east during the overnight hours on Monday and into an area that extends from central Missouri south to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas and include parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma; western Mississippi and Tennessee; the southern half of Missouri; and most of Arkansas and Louisiana.
 
Storm Prediction Center threat map detailing the target area for severe weather on Tuesday, November 8.
 
Organized storms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. The main threat from the storm outbreak will be wind damage associated with expected squall line development. The SPC warns that there is an isolated threat for hail and tornadoes. The possibility of hail and tornadoes will depend on super cell development on Tuesday.
 
If you live in the threat areas, be sure that you monitor local media outlets or NOAA Weather Radio for updates to the forecast, watches, and warnings. Follow emergency precautions should threatening weather approach.
 
Later this week, I’ll explore the dangers of winter weather as part of the National Weather Service’s Winter Weather Awareness campaign.
 
Additional Links: