Concerns of Early Frost and Soybean Demand!
Aug 24, 2009
For many colleges, today is the first day of school. It’s hard to admit it but over 35 years ago I was starting my first day of college. Scared, excited and looking forward to the future all once. All I can say is good luck to all, enjoy the time spent in the great halls of college and prepare your self well to take advantage of the opportunities ahead!
As for the markets, beans were the leader of the pack on solid demand interest. Concern is still very high that the crop is not out of the woods and could be hurt by a fall frost. Old crop is leader of the pack now with November beans back above $10. This strength has helped to pull up the corn and wheat markets out of an oversold condition.
Our bias here at UMS is the corn crop is out there, the only question is how big—160 bu. per acre or 165 bu. per acre. Every 1 bu. above the USDA estimate of 160bu. per acre is going to have real impact. We continue to believe the USDA demand estimates are over stated at current prices. Lower prices for a longer time period are called for to get the demand projections they suggest.
In a nut shell, take advantage of any strong price bounce into the September USDA Supply and Demand report on concern about frost to make sales. We will be taking off much of this week but will become much more aggressive on selling positions as we move into the first two weeks of September.
If you need any help in implementing a speculative or hedging strategy give us a call at 1-800-832-1488 or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com.
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