Jim's Morning Markets Report--November 7

Published on: 06:43AM Nov 07, 2011

Monday, November 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s the same song, just a different verse to start the new
trading week. Instead of Greece, it’s now Italy that is in
serious financial trouble, in the latest developments coming out
of the European Union debt crisis. This has gold, the U.S. dollar
index and U.S. Treasuries trading higher on safe-haven demand.
Italy’s economy one of the larger ones in the EU, which means any
bailout for Italy by the EU would be much more difficult. Fears
of a worldwide debt contagion have been ratcheted up a notch.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,259.00 and then at last week’s high of
1,280.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,232.20 and then at 1,220.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,366.00 and then at 2,380.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,319.50 and
then at 2,300.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,800 and then more stops just below support at
Friday’s low of 11,785. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,950 and then at
12,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as
the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at 140
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-
term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 28/32
and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.19.5
and then at last week’s high of 130.29.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 129.31.5 and then at 129.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 77.59 and then at last week’s
high of 77.84. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 77.00 and then at 76.59. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today and hit a fresh
three-month high overnight. Bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $95.00 and then at $96.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at the
overnight low of $93.23. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed but mostly weaker in overnight
trading. Grains are still focusing on the key “outside markets”
and they are mixed today. Trading has turned more choppy in the
grain markets recently. Grain traders are looking ahead to this
week’s monthly USDA crop production report.