Reuters August WASDE Poll

Published on: 10:42AM Aug 08, 2019

Export Sales Announcement-

  • Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Reuters August WASDE Poll: Corn Acres Falling, Soybeans Acres Rising

  • Reuters released their poll of surveyed analysts ahead of the USDA’s August WASDE, to be released on Monday, August 12th, and it shows a decline in planted and harvested corn acres and a rise in soybean acres.  
  • Corn:  The average estimate for planted acres: 88 million acres, -3.1 MA from the July WASDE.  Harvested acres: 80.0 MA, -3.4 MA from July, Yield: 164.9 BPA, -1.1 BPA from July.  Ending Stocks: 1.6 billion bushels -400 million bushes from July.   
  • Soy:  The average estimate for planted acres: 81 million acres, +1 MA from the July WASDE. Harvested acres: 79.9 MA, +.6 MA from July. Yield: 47.6 BPA, -.9 BPA from July.  Ending Stocks: 821 million bushels +26 million bushels from July.   
  • Wheat: 2019/20 ending stocks: Unchanged from July at 1 billion bushels.      
  • What It Means For The U.S. Farmer: At FBN, we believe that the range of estimates for corn planted, harvested acres and the yield number was large. We believe that given the range of estimates for 2019/20 corn production that the August WASDE can contain surprises.  For soybeans the range of production related estimates was much narrower suggesting that a general directional consensus on the direction of the 2019/20 crop.          

 

FBN Advisory     

Chinese Soybean Imports Surge To 12 Month High During July 

  • Fueled by positive crush margins Chinese soybean imports from Argentina and Brazil rose +8% YoY during July.   
  • According to China’s General Administration of Customs, the country imported 8.64 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up from 8 million in the same month in 2018.  The figure during July is +33% from 6.51 million tonnes in June and the highest since August 2018. 
  • The positive crush margins were attributed to using soybeans from Argentina and Brazil as the 20% import tariff on U.S. soybean imports are not supportive Crush margins.  
  • According to Chinese customs data, China has purchased 46.91 million tonnes of soybeans in the first seven months of the year, -11% from the same period during 2018.  
  • What It Means For The US Farmer:  At FBN we believe that the Chinese customs data showing large volumes of soybean imports from the southern hemisphere is negative for the U.S. farmer.  While the data is not a surprise to us, we believe that lost Chinese market share inside of the current political climate will present headwinds to the export program during the 2019/20 crop year.    


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