Shortened Session as Month Ends

Published on: 08:11AM Nov 29, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 29, 2019.

Grain markets look to an old fashioned 8:30 AM CST open after being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. We hope everyone enjoyed time with family and friends! Grains will have an early 12:05 close today, while livestock will close at 12:15. Below are the headlines & stories out since markets were last open.

Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 AM. Analysts expect to see corn sales of 400,000 to 900,000 tonnes, soybeans 600,000 to 1,200,000 tonnes, wheat 300,000 to 600,000, soymeal 150,000 to 300,000, and soyoil 5,000 too 30,000.

Brazil's 2019/20 soybean crop is estimated at 124 million tonnes, unchanged from last month according to a report by Agroconsult. The corn crop is estimated at 102.4 million tonnes, a bit above the government's estimate of 98.3 million.

First notice day for December contracts is today. Deliveries were light, however, with zero contracts issued in corn and Chicago wheat, and 11 issued in KC Wheat. Soymeal and oil saw larger numbers at 319 and 226 respectively.

Ethanol production this week showed an increase from 1.033 million barrels per day to now 1.059. We would suggest the past three weeks have confirmed our expectation of rebounding production. We have gone from -5.1% four weeks ago to now +1.0% on a year/year basis. Year to date production is still a little weak at 3.9% under last year. USDA’s goal in corn for ethanol, which is separate from ethanol production, is for almost no change (5.375 billion bushels 2019/20 vs. 5.376 in 2018/19).

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture lowered its forecast for wheat harvest in Russia in 2019 from 78 mln tonnes to 75 mln tonnes, according to a presentation of Director of the Department of Crop Production at the Ministry Roman Nekrasov. (TASS)

China warned the United States on Thursday that it would take "firm counter measures" in response to U.S. legislation backing anti-government protesters in Hong Kong, and said attempts to interfere in the Chinese-ruled city were doomed to fail. (Reuters)

Rabobank estimates Brazil will export 2.39 million tonnes of beef next year, an increase from this year's 2.16. Pork exports are estimated at 948,000 million tonnes from this year's 828,000.

China's commerce ministry expects imports of pork and pork byproducts to exceed 3 million tonnes this year, said an official on Thursday, while total meat imports will be more than 6 million tonnes. (Reuters)

European Union lawmakers approved an increase in U.S. beef imports to the EU on Thursday, a move likely to ease transatlantic tensions. (Reuters)

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .40 and select down 1.65.  The CME feeder index is 145.02.  Pork cut-out values were down 2.28.