May 12, 2009
2008/09 - Well, for current crop we can take off about 2 million tons of soybeans in South America estimative: 1 from Brazil, and 1 from Argentina, at least. Actually, argies analysts say their soybean crop can make about 31 mi tons.
In Brazil, southern region is facing the worst drought ever, and Northern / Northeast region is flooding! In Argentina, there are other problems besides the severe drought.
We heard China would import about 39,5 mi tons. Wasn’t it? So we have room for more 2 mi tons next report? Maybe… with rumors of shipment postponing we are in doubt.
Cotton may be reduced in Brazil also: 5,5 million bales is more reasonable due to weather.
2009/2010 - Let’s see…60 million tons of soybean in Brazil, and 51 in Argentina. We really would like to make it!!! We have land, we have good producers, and we have hope! But will we have price to afford it? Will we have credit lines? And very important: Will we have seeds????
May sounds weird, but, indeed, we are facing already some difficulties to buy some varieties of seed. The better ones, I would say! I guess in Argentina the same problem will happens, as they are expected to produce 50% more than now.
Even with available money, and fair prices, those numbers are a very hard target due to many others obstacles.
I also don’t understand the consumption number for soybeans 08/09. It sounds that as much global economy rises, as fewer people eats!
Brazilian crop cotton for 2009/2010 is unpredictable. Government will probably reduce this crop subsidy, and may be a trend for the next year. Once it happens, many players will leave the offer side here, as there are many other cultures more profitable.
Finally, I think world’s current stocks are more tight than reported. So are the USA’s. And 2009/2010 production targets are very Hard to afford. For Brazil and Argentina production, so for USA’s projected yields.
I’d appreciate to know your thoughts about the wasde - and also about my thoughts!