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Crop Production Report for 9/11/15

Published on: 16:23PM Sep 11, 2015

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Corn Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from August Forecast Soybean Production Up Slightly Cotton Production Up 3 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 13.6 billion bushels, down 4 percent from last year’s record production and down less than 1 percent from the August forecast. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 167.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the August forecast and down 3.5 bushels from 2014. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but down 2 percent from 2014.

Soybean production is forecast at 3.94 billion bushels, up slightly from August but down 1 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from last month but down 0.7 bushel from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.5 million acres, unchanged from August but up less than 1 percent from 2014.

Crop Comments Corn:
 
The 2015 area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but down 2 percent from last year. The September 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest number of ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). At 13.6 billion bushels, 2015 corn production is forecast to be the third highest production on record for the United States.
 
The forecasted yield, at 167.5 bushels per acre, is expected to be the second highest yield on record for the United States. Record yields are forecasted in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin. On August 2, twenty-nine percent of the United States corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage, 4 percentage points behind last year and 2 points behind the 5-year average.
 
Nationally, 50 percent of the crop was at or beyond the dough stage by August 9, slightly behind last year but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Despite below-average temperatures across the Corn Belt during the week ending August 9, ten estimating States saw advances of 20 percentage points or more in corn entering the dough stage. By August 16, twenty-one percent of this year’s crop was denting, slightly ahead of last year but 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
 
 

At this time, all major corn-estimating States were behind their respective 5-year averages for denting progress, except Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. At the same time, 69 percent of the corn was reported in good to excellent condition, 3 percentage points below the same time last year. Eighty-five percent of the corn was at or beyond the dough stage by August 23, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average.

 

The percentage of corn in the dough stage advanced 20 percentage points or more during the week ending August 23 in Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Corn dented or beyond advanced to 39 percent complete by August 23, six percentage points ahead of last year but 4 points behind the 5-year average.

 
Double-digit advances of corn in the dent stage were observed in 16 of the 18 estimating States. By August 30, sixty percent of this year’s corn was at or beyond the dent stage, 10 percentage points ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. During the final week of August, the percentage of the crop entering the dent stage advanced by at least 20 percentage points in 9 of the 18 estimating States.

Nine percent of the nation’s crop was mature by August 30, two percentage points ahead of last year but 6 points behind the 5-year average. Below-normal temperatures in most of the Corn Belt slowed corn maturation, with all estimating States except Colorado, behind their respective 5-year average. Colorado. Overall, 68 percent of the corn was reported in good to excellent condition on August 30, six percentage points below the same time last year.

 
 

 Soybeans: Area for harvest is forecast at a record 83.5 million acres, unchanged from August but up less than 1 percent from 2014. The September objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count from the previous year.

 
 

However, compared with final counts for 2014, pod counts are up in 6 of the 10 published States. The largest increase from 2014’s final pod count is expected in Minnesota, up 249 pods per 18 square feet. A decrease of more than 500 pods per 18 square feet is expected in Missouri. As the month of August began, 54 percent of the soybean crop was setting pods, equal to last year but 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

 
 

Cooler temperatures throughout the Midwest in August slowed development of the Nation’s soybean crop compared to historical averages. By August 30, ninety-three percent of the soybean crop was at or beyond the pod-setting stage, slightly behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

 
 

As of August 30, sixty-three percent of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 9 percentage points behind the same time in 2014. During August, good to excellent ratings increased or remained unchanged in 10 of the 18 published States, with the largest increase during the month occurring in Kansas, which showed an increase of 7 percentage points. Iowa, Louisiana, and Mississippi showed a decline of 3 percentage points in the good to excellent ratings during August.

Dry conditions in North Dakota led to a decline of 13 percentage points in the good to excellent categories during the month. If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 


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