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Grain Stocks Report for 6/30/15

Published on: 16:27PM Jun 30, 2015
 

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 Grain Stocks Report for 6/30/15

Corn Stocks Up 15 Percent from June 2014
Soybean Stocks Up 54 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 28 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 4.45 billion bushels, up 
15 percent from June 1, 2014. Of the total stocks, 2.28 billion bushels are 
stored on farms, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 
2.17 billion bushels, are up 9 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2015 
indicated disappearance is 3.30 billion bushels, compared with 3.16 billion 
bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 625 million bushels, 
up 54 percent from June 1, 2014. On-farm stocks totaled 246 million bushels, 
up 126 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 379 million bushels, are 
up 28 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the 
March - May 2015 quarter totaled 701 million bushels, up 19 percent from the 
same period a year earlier.

Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 
753 million bushels, up 28 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are 
estimated at 155 million bushels, up 60 percent from last year. Off-farm 
stocks, at 597 million bushels, are up 21 percent from a year ago. The 
March - May 2015 indicated disappearance is 388 million bushels, down 
17 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop Durum wheat stocks in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 
25.9 million bushels, up 20 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 
10.3 million bushels, are down 20 percent from June 1, 2014. Off-farm stocks 
totaled 15.6 million bushels, up 79 percent from a year ago. The 
March - May 2015 indicated disappearance of 11.8 million bushels is down 
29 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Old crop barley stocks in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 78.7 million 
bushels, down 4 percent from June 1, 2014. On-farm stocks are estimated at 
20.9 million bushels, 10 percent above a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 
57.7 million bushels, are 9 percent below June 1, 2014. The March - May 2015 
indicated disappearance is 39.6 million bushels, 1 percent above the same 
period a year earlier.

Old crop oats stored in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 53.7 million 
bushels, 117 percent above the stocks on June 1, 2014. Of the total stocks on 
hand, 15.1 million bushels are stored on farms, 56 percent higher than a year 
ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 38.6 million bushels, 157 percent above the 
previous year. Indicated disappearance during March - May 2015 totaled 
5.71 million bushels, compared with 10.4 million bushels during the same 
period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions on June 1, 2015 totaled 33.2 million 
bushels, down 64 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 2.92 million 
bushels, are down 35 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 30.3 million 
bushels, are down 66 percent from June 1, 2014. The March - May 2015 
indicated disappearance from all positions is 86.7 million bushels, up 
4 percent from the same period last year.

Pulse crops stored in all positions on June 1, 2015 are: dry edible peas, 
3.12 million cwt; lentils, 655 thousand cwt; Austrian winter peas, 
52,000 cwt; all chickpeas, 762,000 cwt; small chickpeas, 177,000 cwt; and 
large chickpeas, 585,000 cwt. Small chickpeas are defined as peas that will 
pass through a 20/64 inch round hole screen.

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on 
surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June. Separate surveys are 
conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks 
survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of over 70,000 farm 
operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in 
the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to 
provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of June 
1, 2015. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, 
seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program.

The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain 
storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,700 facilities with 
10.7 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a 
report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received 
from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made 
for missing facilities to make the survey complete.

Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the 
State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical 
estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and 
off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the 
balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check 
the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, 
exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and 
oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, 
and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible 
estimate of stocks.

Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the 
quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 
Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made 
when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and 
calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be 
reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these 
years will be made after that date.

Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated 
separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. 
The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all 
operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This 
variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States 
level, is approximately 2.7 percent for corn, 3.5 percent for soybeans, and 
5.0 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out 
of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 
5.4 percent for corn, 7.0 percent for soybeans, and 10.0 percent for all 
wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates 
produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and 
surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, 
barley, and oats are 16.8, 8.7, and 11.9 percent, respectively.

Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, 
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, 
recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are 
subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, 
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.

 


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