Grain Stocks Report for 9/28/18
Sep 28, 2018
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Corn Stocks Down 7 Percent from September 2017
Soybean Stocks Up 45 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 5 Percent
Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 2.14 billion bushels, down 7 percent from September 1, 2017. Of the total stocks, 620 million bushels are stored on farms, down 21 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.52 billion bushels, are up 1 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2018 indicated disappearance is 3.16 billion bushels, compared with 2.94 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 438 million bushels, up 45 percent from September 1, 2017. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 101 million bushels, up 15 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 337 million bushels, are up 58 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2018 totaled 781 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2017 soybean production is revised up 19.1 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 90.1 million acres, and harvested area is unchanged at 89.5 million acres. The 2017 yield, at 49.3 bushels per acre, is up 0.2 bushel from the previous estimate. A table with 2017 acreage, yield, and production estimates by States is included on page 17 of this report.
All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2018 totaled 2.38 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 631 million bushels, up 28 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.75 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2018 indicated disappearance is 605 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of September. Separate surveys are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 66,300 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of September 1, 2018. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program.
The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with 11.2 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete.
Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks.
Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these years will be made after that date.
Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is approximately 4.3 percent for corn, 5.5 percent for soybeans, and 3.2 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 8.6 percent for corn, 11.0 percent for soybeans, and 6.4 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 28.8, 5.3, and 6.3 percent, respectively.
Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
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