Published on: 16:10PM Mar 29, 2018

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas 1 week trial offer for $50


Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

One week trial offer for $50 on learning about the best way to hedge.In my opinion, my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years.

This service mission is to make producers and end users self-directed, and not need information provided by any service. All of my subscribers were seeking to hedge in a better way than all the services they had in the past were providing. When I bought my membership/seat in 1976, nobody would help or educate me to what works for them, and what does not. I learned from the losers what does not work by listening to what they said and how they traded. They taught me what NOT to do. You, like my subscribers, have already learned what not to do, now you want to learn what works well for you, no matter up, down, or sideways market.

As I have said every year "Think what you want but always have a hedge on". Bull or bear, we use the same strategies, but each self-directed person reflects what they think in the strike prices they select and use. No herd following here. It is the opposite, when everyone is buying and the price is near significant resistance, we are improving our hedge by capturing more income when cheap to do so, and on price breaks when everyone is selling and the market is near contract lows, we are improving our hedges buying back our upside when cheap to do so.

Hedge means to take risk off the table, not add to it. How is it possible for hedge service to recommend buying back your corn when above $4.00, please tell me how that is a hedge? We were hedging and improving our hedges then.

Simple easy to understand option strategies give my producers the odds greatly in their favor and gives them control of the protection they need and the upside potential they want. Mindset is also on the forefront every year, live and hedge in the half full instead of the half empty. Learn how to read the charts clearly and easy, to help locate long-term significant support and resistance, to help determine how much protection you need, and what upside objective is reasonable to achieve.


Corn Stocks Up 3 Percent from March 2017

Soybean Stocks Up 21 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Down 10 Percent


Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2018 totaled 8.89 billion bushels, up 3 percent from March 1, 2017. Of the total stocks, 5.00 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 2 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.89 billion bushels, are up 5 percent from a year ago. The December 2017 - February 2018 indicated disappearance is 3.68 billion bushels, compared with 3.76 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2018 totaled 2.11 billion bushels, up 21 percent from March 1, 2017.

Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 855 million bushels, up 28 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.25 billion bushels, are up 17 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2017 - February 2018 quarter totaled 1.05 billion bushels, down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2018, totaled 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 259 million bushels, down 26 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.24 billion bushels, are down 6 percent from a year ago. The December 2017 - February 2018 indicated disappearance is 379 million bushels, 10 percent below the same period a year earlier.


Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March. Separate surveys are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 82,900 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of March 1, 2018. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program.


The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with 11.2 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete. Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates.


Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks. Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture.


No revisions to these years will be made after that date. Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is approximately 2.0 percent for corn, 2.7 percent for soybeans, and 2.5 percent for all wheat.


This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 4.0 percent for corn, 5.4 percent for soybeans, and 5.0 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 8.9, 4.1, and 4.7 percent, respectively.

Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. 

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The markets covered daily are 2017 & 2018 Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat.

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