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Corn Stocks Up 32 Percent from September 2016
Soybean Stocks Up 53 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Down 11 Percent
Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled
2.29 billion bushels, up 32 percent from September 1, 2016. Of the total
stocks, 787 million bushels are stored on farms, up 25 percent from a year
earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.51 billion bushels, are up 36 percent from a
year ago. The June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 2.93 billion
bushels, compared with 2.97 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled
301 million bushels, up 53 percent from September 1, 2016. Soybean stocks
stored on farms totaled 87.9 million bushels, up 112 percent from a year ago.
Off-farm stocks, at 213 million bushels, are up 38 percent from last
September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2017 totaled 665 million
bushels, down 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance
data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the
2016 soybean production is revised down 10.6 million bushels from the
previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 83.4 million acres, and
harvested area is revised down 40,000 acres to 82.7 million acres. The 2016
yield, at 52.0 bushels per acre, is down 0.1 bushel from the previous
estimate. A table with 2016 acreage, yield, and production estimates by
States is included on page 17 of this report.
All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 2.25 billion
bushels, down 11 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at
489 million bushels, down 33 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at
1.76 billion bushels, are down 3 percent from a year ago. The
June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 668 million bushels, down
10 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 63.9 million
bushels, down 30 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 31.1 million
bushels, are down 53 percent from September 1, 2016. Off-farm stocks totaled
32.8 million bushels, up 24 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2017
indicated disappearance of 27.3 million bushels is down 31 percent from the
same period a year earlier.
Barley stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 180 million
bushels, down 22 percent from September 1, 2016. On-farm stocks are estimated
at 89.4 million bushels, 32 percent below a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at
90.2 million bushels, are 10 percent below September 2016. The
June - August 2017 indicated disappearance is 68.7 million bushels, 4 percent
below the same period a year earlier.
Oats stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled 71.8 million
bushels, 9 percent below the stocks on September 1, 2016. Of the total stocks
on hand, 33.7 million bushels are stored on farms, 10 percent lower than a
year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 38.1 million bushels, 7 percent below the
previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2017 totaled
27.9 million bushels, compared with 43.0 million bushels during the same
period a year ago.
Old crop grain sorghum stored in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled
33.5 million bushels, down 8 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at
4.28 million bushels, are up 14 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at
29.3 million bushels, are down 11 percent from September 1, 2016. The
June - August 2017 indicated disappearance from all positions is 51.2 million
bushels, down 5 percent from the same period a year ago.
Old crop sunflower stocks in all positions on September 1, 2017 totaled
649 million pounds, up 57 percent from a year ago. All stocks stored on farms
totaled 134 million pounds and off-farm stocks totaled 515 million pounds.
Stocks of oil type sunflower seed are 495 million pounds; of this total,
115 million pounds are on-farm stocks and 379 million pounds are off-farm
stocks. Non-oil sunflower stocks totaled 154 million pounds, with
18.9 million pounds stored on the farm and 135 million pounds stored off the
This report was approved on September 29, 2017.
Survey Procedures: The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on
surveys conducted during the first two weeks of September. Separate surveys
are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm
stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately
66,200 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all
operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers
are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations
as of September 1, 2017. This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored
whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government
The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain
storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,500 facilities with
11.1 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a
report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received
from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made
for missing facilities to make the survey complete.
Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the
State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical
estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and
off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the
balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check
the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports,
exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and
oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization,
and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible
estimate of stocks.
Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the
quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1
Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made
when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and
calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be
reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these
years will be made after that date.
Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated
separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different.
The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all
operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This
variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States
level, is approximately 3.2 percent for corn, 6.6 percent for soybeans, and
3.1 percent for all wheat. This means that chances are approximately 95 out
of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus
6.4 percent for corn, 13.2 percent for soybeans, and 6.2 percent for all
wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates
produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and
surveyed using the same procedures. The relative standard errors for sorghum,
barley, and oats are 18.6, 5.0, and 3.6 percent, respectively.
Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission,
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting,
recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are
subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly,
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and
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