Published on: 18:16PM Apr 02, 2019

Futures trading involve the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $279.00 monthly


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Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

One week trial offer for $50 on learning about the best way to hedge.In my opinion, my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40 years.

This service mission is to make producers and end users self-directed, and not need information provided by any service. All of my subscribers were seeking to hedge in a better way than all the services they had in the past were providing. When I bought my membership/seat in 1976, nobody would help or educate me to what works for them, and what does not. I learned from the losers what does not work by listening to what they said and how they traded. They taught me what NOT to do. You, like my subscribers, have already learned what not to do, now you want to learn what works well for you, no matter up, down, or sideways market.

As I have said every year "Think what you want but always have a hedge on". Bull or bear, we use the same strategies, but each self-directed person reflects what they think in the strike prices they select and use. No herd following here. It is the opposite, when everyone is buying and the price is near significant resistance, we are improving our hedge by capturing more income when cheap to do so, and on price breaks when everyone is selling and the market is near contract lows, we are improving our hedges buying back our upside when cheap to do so.

Hedge means to take risk off the table, not add to it. How is it possible for hedge service to recommend buying back your corn on corrective rallies, please tell me how that is a hedge? We were hedging and improving our hedges then.

Simple easy to understand option strategies give my producers the odds greatly in their favor and gives them control of the protection they need and the upside potential they want. Mindset is also on the forefront every year, live and hedge in the half full instead of the half empty. Learn how to read the charts clearly and easy, to help locate long-term significant support and resistance, to help determine how much protection you need, and what upside objective is reasonable to achieve.



It is the same story every year, radio stations, brokers, and people who tout that they know where prices will be in the future, because that is all that they have to sell, telling people what they want to hear. The worst offenders are the services that call themselves hedge or offer marketing services that only look at the upside, and never have a plan if the price goes down instead. My producers have been telling me that almost all advice being given out there was to buy corn calls before the report. How is that a hedge? That advice increases the risk if the price goes down instead. The definition of hedge is "Ahedgeis an investment position intended to offset potential losses/gains that may be incurred by a companion investment. In simple language, ahedgeisused to reduce any substantial losses/gains suffered by an individual or an organization". Anyone who is advising producers and instead of getting protection is recommending getting more upside, in my mind is incompetent. That is like a doctor recommending eating more sweets to a diabetic, it is exactly what the patient wants to hear, but in the long run will end your life sooner rather than later.


I asked before and after the report, what is their plan if the price goes down instead; they had no plan. After the report they ignored their recommendation and did not comment on not only what to do with their calls, but how do you defend not being hedged and the price could go down from here? I have kept in my service to be read every day, that if you have no plan, you plan on failing. As a trader I learned before I bought a membership, no matter how you approach trading, the number one problem we have is losing money. Winning trades no matter how big or small is never a problem; it is the losers that cause problems. At the end of the year your profits come from making more money from the winners, than what you lost on the losers. Not losing money is the same thing as making money. I could not call a relative or friend and ask them to send me another million to continue to trade on the floor, I knew that my small account was all I had to lose, so my priority was not losing money because that would end my chances forever. I wanted to stay there and learn how to trade successfully, not make it or not in a short period of time, I was in it for the long run. I was fortunate enough to make a living from the start.


Bull or bear, we all have the same task, first is where do I get in? Then, what is my risk to be proven wrong and exit the idea, and what objective or profit will I take if I am right. The better the entry price, the less the risk to be proven wrong and the reward is greater if the objective is reached.


To tell producers to buy calls and they have not already locked in an income using a hedge is an unacceptable gamble. Never risk too much on one idea. If you do not consider the unimaginable can happen and you could be on the wrong side of an unimaginable price move, it will be disaster when it does happen to you, so I never put myself in a position that can be that harmful. I do not mind losing trade ideas, but losing more than I want is unacceptable, so the first thing I always look at is what my risk is. I use stops for day trades, and use known risk options strategies for long term timeframes.


All my producers and subscribers were once like you, listening to everyone else, and they seen the same results you are seeing, you experienced what does not work, and find that they all cost you money. This made my subscribers to seek out and learn to be self directed, and make hedge decisions based upon knowledge. It seems they always buy when it has already rallied (like buy corn before the report), and they sell when it has already crashed. Standing in the pit for decades I learned early, following a consistent loser and doing the opposite they do, is just like following a consistent winner.


In my service every day I point out how difficult it is to trade successfully, I say 1 out of 100 can be successful, based upon the thousands of people I saw that bought a membership, and was unable to last more than a year. Their problem was not their winning trades. What makes you think that these advisors are any different? What makes you think they can outperform those entire Drs, lawyers, and Indian Chiefs who bought a membership and failed?


Since 2012 every year my recommendation has been to empty your bins before you start planting and start fresh, and the majority of services has recommended throwing half in the bin and selling it next year, how well has that worked? What they lost will never be made back. Producers should produce grain for one reason, to sell and make money from. Not making money one year but having your farm intact is business (not all business make money every year, and can post losses), but gambling beyond your means is like a degenerate gambler who needs help with their addiction. People who need to make money back immediately might be human, but not rational and could lead to once owning a farm, but now will be forced to work on someone elsesfarm.


My service teaches everything I know as a trader that applies to a producer who wants to be self directed and hedge themselves as they pursue a higher price. My mission is that you do not need me, or any service to help you in the future, you learned all that you need to know to make your own decisions.


It really bothers me to see the advice given that only winds up hurting producers, and the people making money giving the advice does not lose any money from their failure, and when the producer losses their wealth or farm, the touts go home and ask what is for dinner, no harm for them. Did they teach or tell you how to reduce risk? It seems like they should learn first. The producers looking for advice from the professionals are their victims, do not be a victim and be the captain of your own ship, and you will navigate the ocean of risk much better than them, with the knowledge you have learned on how to make the best decisions.


My service has recommended being 100% hedged since 2012, and currently are hedged 2019 for at least 6 months now, and have continued to be 100% hedged 2018 and we take advantage of the price swings until ready to be cash marketed. Unhedged are not only lightly hedged 2018, my producers tell me that nationally it seems producers are only 10% hedged for 2019, another disaster.


You already learned what not to do from them now do yourself a favor and look for a way to be self directedand protect yourself if the price goes down, as you seek to make more income if the market can rally in the future.


on 3/21/19 in my commentary I said "Lastly, if you listen to the radio, most services, or other producers, many are recommending buying December corn calls, how is that a hedge? The December $4.00 call settled at $.23 5/8, and the market will need to get to $4.23 5/8 just to get your money back. You have learned that the only time you buy an outright put or call is if you expect a big move in a short period of time. When time is involved, premium for that time is also involved, and that is the reason you sell a wasting asset against the one you are long, time decay. Since we have a long time for the idea the market will rally, we would look at buying a call spread, such as the December $4.00/$4.20 call spread which settled at $.06 1/8. I can do 3 call spreads all in with commissions for the same price as 1 $4.00 all in. Options have no mystery to them, everything is known too. Whatever you do is for expiration although you can get out at any time before then, so on expiration if the market is $4.22 lets say the 3 call spreads are fully valued at $.20 each or $.60 total, and the 1 $4.00 call would be worth $.22.


Not only are they falsely portraying themselves as a hedge service, they greatly increase the risk by recommending buying the calls. They must have little option knowledge to recommend outright calls. With the knowledge you have and when you hear things like this, you must laugh and be glad that you know more than they do about options and hedging (taking risk off the table), and risk/reward, and you could never be their victim.

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The markets covered daily are old crop 2018 & new crop 2019 Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat.

My numbers are sent on part 1 before the night session begins. Commentary follows a few hours later on part 2. (via your email)

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Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas is designed to help you plan your hedging strategies, and speculators for day or longer term trading.

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas $279.00 monthly

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