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WHEAT: U.S. wheat endings stocks for 2015/16 are projected 10 million bushels higher
on reduced feed and residual use. At 976 million bushels, these would be the largest
ending stocks since 1987. The reduced feed and residual use reflects lower
disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as
indicated by March 1 stocks and revised December 1 stocks, both from the March 31
Grain Stocks report. The projected season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 on the
high end to $4.90 to $5.00.
Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are raised 1.0 million tons primarily on increased
production, which is a record 733.1 million tons. EU production is raised 1.5 million tons
to a record 160.0 million, and Argentina is raised 0.3 million tons to 11.3 million, both on
updated government data. Partially offsetting are a 0.6-million-ton reduction for Ethiopia,
and a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Pakistan. World exports are raised 0.4 million tons to
163.1 million. World wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 0.7 million tons on both
reduced feed and food use. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks
are raised 1.7 million tons to 239.3 million, and remain record large.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected higher with
increases for corn, barley, and oats based on indicated disappearance as reported in the
March 31 Grain Stocks and adjustments to seed use based on intended acreage from
Prospective Plantings. Corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower
reflecting indicated disappearance through the first half of the marketing year. Corn use
in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher on a stronger-than-expected
pace of weekly ethanol production through March as reported by the Energy Information
Administration. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels. The
projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55
per bushel, with the range lowered 10 cents on the high end.
Offsetting usage changes are made for 2015/16 U.S. sorghum this month. Projected
feed and residual use is lowered 15 million bushels based on the March 1 stocks.
Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is projected 25 million bushels higher based on
robust use of sorghum to make ethanol during February as indicated in the latest Grain
Crushings and Co-Products Production report. Projected exports are lowered 10 million
bushels as sales have declined sharply in recent weeks. The sorghum farm price range
is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint to $3.20 per bushel as discounts to corn
remain large in the latest data.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 0.3 million tons higher with a
number of mostly offsetting changes. Corn production is raised 1.0 million tons for
Argentina, as timely rain during February and March was beneficial following some
dryness and heat during January. Barley production for Argentina is raised 0.6 million
tons on greater area and better-than-expected yields. Argentina corn production is also
revised 1.7 million tons higher for 2014/15. Mali corn production for 2015/16 is 0.6 million
tons higher following favorable summer rain over the main production areas. Sorghum
output is lowered 3.1 million tons for Sudan and 1.2 million tons for Ethiopia, as El Niño
conditions over the past year reduced rain in key growing areas. There are also a number
of other smaller changes to coarse grains production in several other countries of SubSaharan
Africa. Elsewhere, corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for both Mexico and
Serbia. Production is raised for Mexico reflecting the latest government statistics which
indicate higher winter planted area in Sinaloa. The change for Serbia is based on the
latest government revisions for the crop that was grown last summer.
Global coarse grain exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.5 million tons as increases for corn
and barley more than offset a small reduction for sorghum. Corn exports are raised 2.0
million tons for Argentina, 0.3 million tons each for the EU and Russia, and 0.2 million
tons for Ukraine. Vietnam corn imports are raised 2.0 million tons, reflecting trade data
and updated estimates for feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports for the EU are
lowered 1.0 million tons, on a slowing import license pace and large, competitively priced
wheat supplies, which are expected to support greater domestic wheat feeding. Corn
consumption for Japan is revised lower for several years reflecting official government
statistics. Barley exports are raised for the EU and Argentina with higher imports for
Saudi Arabia and Iran. Sorghum imports are lowered for China but raised for Mexico.
China corn feeding is raised, offsetting a decline in wheat as internal market prices are
expected to favor corn. China corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered 2.0 million
tons, but the reduction is more than offset by larger stocks in Japan, the United States,
Vietnam, Serbia, and Argentina. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons
RICE: U.S. 2015/16 rice supplies are lowered 0.5 million cwt on lower long-grain
imports. Long-grain ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 22.5 million. All rice
ending stocks are now 43.4 million cwt. The all rice and long-grain season-average
prices are each lowered $0.30 per cwt at the midpoint to $12.30 to $12.70 and $10.80 to
$11.20, respectively. Medium- and short-grain prices are also down with the California
price lowered $0.50 per cwt at the midpoint and the Other States price lowered $0.20 per
cwt at the midpoint.
Global rice supplies for 2015/16 are lowered 0.5 million tons, primarily on reduced
production. Brazil and Pakistan production are lowered 0.3 million tons and 0.2 million
tons, respectively, both on updated government statistics. Global trade and domestic use
projections are both lowered fractionally. Global ending stocks are lowered 0.3 million
tons to 90.2 million.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2015/16 include higher exports,
lower seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are increased 15 million
bushels to 1,705 million reflecting stronger global soybean imports led by China and
several other countries including Iran, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Seed use is reduced
slightly in line with plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, down 15 million from last
month. Soybean crush and balance sheets for soybean meal and oil are unchanged.
Forecast price ranges for soybeans and products are narrowed this month with midpoints
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.0 million tons, marginally higher
than last month, with small, mostly offsetting changes in foreign production. Global
soybean production is virtually unchanged at 320.2 million tons as a projected boost to
Argentina production offsets a decline for India. Argentina soybean production is
projected at 59.0 million tons, up 0.5 million, as a higher forecast yield more than offsets
a decline to harvested area.
India soybean production is lowered 0.5 million tons to 7.5
million on reduced harvested area and yield. Yields are estimated at just 0.66 tons per
hectare, reflecting excessive moisture in Madhya Pradesh and erratic rainfall in
Maharashtra. Other changes include reduced soybean production for China, and
increased rapeseed production for the EU and China. China sunflowerseed production is
also raised, but more than offset by lower forecasts for the EU, Brazil, and Argentina. For
2014/15, global soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 319.5 million on a larger
estimate for Brazil. Brazil 2014/15 soybean production is boosted as marketing year
trade and crush data indicate a larger production estimate.
Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 150.8 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly
reflecting increased soybean trade. Increased exports projected for Brazil and the United
States are only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and India. Soybean imports are
raised 1.0 million tons to 83.0 million for China reflecting stronger-than-expected imports
from Brazil. Higher soybean imports are projected for several other countries including
Iran, Japan, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Partly offsetting are soybean import reductions for
Vietnam, Egypt, Venezuela, and Chile. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at
79.0 million tons, up 0.2 million with gains for Argentina and China mostly offset with
reductions for Brazil and the United States.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 is decreased by 35,418 short tons, raw
value (STRV) due to lower expected sucrose recovery from both sugarbeet slicing and
from sugarcane milling in Florida. Imports are increased by 8,646 STRV, mostly due to
more calendar year 2016 shipments under Free Trade Agreements occurring in the fiscal
year 2015/16 than originally anticipated. Imports from Mexico are lowered slightly on the
basis of a rounding adjustment. There are no use changes. Ending stocks for 2015/16
are projected at 1.619 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.3 percent.
Mexico sugar deliveries for 2015/16 human consumption are lowered by 25,241 metric
tons (MT) to 4.319 million. Exports are reduced slightly due to a rounding adjustment.
Ending stocks are projected at 1.160 million MT implying a stocks-to-consumption ratio of
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month as higher expected cattle slaughter and heavier
carcass weights more than offset a lower pork production forecast. The Quarterly Hogs
and Pigs report, released March 25, estimated that growth in pigs per litter in the first
quarter was slower than expected and that producers expected to farrow fewer sows in
March-May than previously intended. Coupled with slower-than-expected first quarter
slaughter, forecast pork production is reduced. No change is made to broiler and turkey
The beef import forecast is raised and the export is reduced from last month based on
recent trade data. The strength of the U.S. dollar continues to make the United States an
attractive market for imports and constrains exports. Pork imports are raised on the
strength of the dollar, but improving demand in several importing countries is providing
support for increased exports. The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month,
but turkey exports are reduced on a slower pace of export recovery.
The cattle price forecast is reduced from last month on relatively weak demand and
larger expected fed cattle supplies. Hog prices are lowered on weaker demand. No
change is made to 2016 broiler and turkey prices. Egg prices are reduced on weaker
The milk production forecast is increased from last month on a slower reduction in the
cow inventory and slightly faster growth in milk per cow. Fat basis exports are raised on
strong exports of butterfat-containing products, but strong imports of butterfat and cheese
supported an increase in the fat basis import forecast. Skim-solids exports and imports
are lowered on the pace of trade to date.
The butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecast are reduced from last month on
relatively large supplies and continued pressure from weak international prices. Cheese
and whey prices are unchanged at the midpoint, but the range is narrowed for cheese.
With no change made to cheese and whey, the Class III price is unchanged at the
midpoint. The Class IV price is lowered on lower butter and NDM prices. The annual all
milk price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint as stronger first-half prices are offset by
lower second-half price forecasts.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton 2015/16 supply and demand forecasts show only marginal
changes from last month. Production is decreased 73,000 bales to reflect USDA’s March
Cotton Ginnings report. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. With small
adjustments to imports and the “unaccounted” residual, ending stocks are lowered
100,000 bales to 3.5 million. The marketing year average price received by producers is
expected to fall between 58.0 and 59.0 cents per pound, a reduction of 1.0 cent at the
upper end of the range.
The world cotton 2015/16 supply and demand forecasts include lower estimated
beginning stocks and production combined with slightly higher consumption, resulting in a
1.1-million-bale reduction in ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered about 300,000
bales, mainly for Greece and Malaysia on historical revisions, partly offset by an increase
for Brazil. World production is reduced 400,000 bales, with reductions in Côte d’Ivoire,
Mali, and Brazil. Consumption is raised for China and Pakistan, but is lowered for
Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey. World stocks are now projected at 102.2 million
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