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WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 7 million bushels lower with reduced imports and higher domestic use mostly offset by lower exports. Imports are projected 15 million bushels lower (mostly durum) based on available shipment data. Feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels higher on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by March 1 stocks and revisions to December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
The all wheat export projection is lowered 20 million bushels on continued strong competition in global markets. This would be the lowest export total since 2009/10. The projected season-average farm price range for all wheat is raised 10 cents on the low end to $6.00 to $6.10 per bushel. Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.8 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks.
The largest production increase is for EU, up 0.8 million tons for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised country data. The Pakistan crop for 2014/15 is also raised 0.5 million tons. Global beginning stocks are lowered 0.9 million tons mostly on an EU increase in wheat feeding for 2013/14. World wheat imports for 2014/15 are raised 1.5 million tons mostly on the addition of six African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mali, Namibia, Rwanda, and Uganda) to the official USDA wheat database this month.
Global exports are also raised 1.5 million tons with EU having by far the biggest increase. EU exports are raised 2 million tons to a record 33.5 million on the continued fast pace of export licenses and the competitiveness of EU supplies to key markets in the Middle East and North Africa. Canada and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons. Canada is raised on a strong pace to date and Russia on expectations that small shipments will continue despite export taxes. Argentina is lowered 1 million tons on the slow pace of export licenses. Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 1.3 million tons largely on the addition of the six African countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.5 million tons with large decreases for Canada, EU, and Russia and large increases for Pakistan and Argentina.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected higher with increases for corn, barley, and oats, only partly offset by a reduction for sorghum. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 50 million bushels with a reduction in expected feed and residual use reflecting December-February disappearance as indicated by March 1 stocks. Barley feed and residual use is lowered 5 million bushels, also on indications from March 1 stocks. Oats stocks are projected higher with a 3-million-bushel increase in imports based on the pace of trade to date.
The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.55 to $3.85 per bushel. A number of significant changes are made this month to the 2014/15 U.S. sorghum balance sheet to accommodate the continuing strong demand from China. Domestic sorghum use is lowered 41 million tons with decreases projected for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and for feed and residual disappearance. FSI use is lowered 16 million bushels reflecting use for ethanol production to date from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which indicated that use for ethanol dropped to zero in February.
Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower. Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels based on the continued strong pace of shipments and large outstanding sales. Ending stocks are expected 9 million bushels lower. The seasonaverage sorghum farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.15 per bushel, up 10 cents at the midpoint of the range and 30 cents higher than the corn farm price.
U.S. sorghum feed and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at 85 million bushels, despite indicated feed and residual disappearance for the first half of the marketing year (SeptemberFebruary) of 154 million bushels. Early harvested 2015-crop sorghum, particularly from Texas, is expected to augment 2014/15 marketing year supplies and support exports at 350 million bushels during the 2014/15 marketing year that ends August 31. The Prospective Plantings report indicated that Texas producers intend to increase sorghum plantings by 20 percent for 2015. Last year, more than 80 percent of the Texas sorghum crop was mature by mid-August.
These additional supplies, exported before the September 1 start of the new marketing year, push feed and residual use during the second half of 2014/15 (March-August) well into negative territory. These supplies will also boost first-quarter (September-November) feed and residual disappearance in the 2015/16 marketing year, as in 2014/15. NOTE: For additional information on this month’s sorghum changes see the April 13 Feed Outlook available from the Economic Research Service at ww.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.2 million tons higher with much of the increase reflecting higher sorghum and millet output in Sudan. There are a number of smaller changes to corn, sorghum, and millet production in several other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, corn production is raised for Serbia, Mexico, and Argentina, up 0.9 million tons, 0.8 million tons, and 0.5 million tons, respectively.
The change for Serbia is based on the latest government revisions for the crop that was grown last summer. Heavy fall rains delayed harvesting and the final tally for that crop. Production is raised for Mexico reflecting the latest government statistics for the crop grown last summer. Increased area, exceptional winter rains, and plentiful supplies of irrigation water support prospects for the winter crop that was planted in the final months of 2014.
The increase for Argentina is based on early harvest results that suggest very good yields in early planted corn and abundant soil moisture for the later planted corn now in grain fill. In addition to last month’s reduction of 2.0 million tons, the South Africa corn crop is lowered an additional 0.2 million tons based on further analysis of weather and satellite imagery.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly on higher sorghum and millet food use for Sudan. China sorghum feed use is also raised, up 1.5 million tons with higher expected sorghum imports from the United States. Indonesia corn feeding is raised 0.4 million tons, more than offsetting a decrease in FSI use. Lower domestic use of corn, sorghum, and barley in the United States offset much of these increases.
Global corn trade is raised for 2014/15 with imports higher for Indonesia, China, Iran, Algeria, Peru, and Colombia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in imports for Mexico with the larger crop. Corn exports are raised for Argentina and Serbia, but lowered for South Africa. Global coarse grain ending stocks are higher with corn stocks projected up 3.2 million tons mostly on increases for the United States, Indonesia, and China.
RICE: U.S. all rice 2014/15 supply and use changes result in a 1.5 million cwt increase in ending stocks to 42.4 million, up 33 percent from the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks are increased 0.5 million to 27.6 million, and combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are increased 1.0 million to 12.5 million. All rice imports are raised 0.5 million (all in long-grain) to 23.5 million as imports from Thailand were strong in February according to the U.S. Census Bureau trade data. No other changes are made on the supply side.
Total 2014/15 all rice use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 234.0 million—all in combined medium- and short-grain rice. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 129.0 million with long-grain and combined mediumand short-grain each reduced 1.0 million to 98.0 million and 31.0 million, respectively.
Partially offsetting the decrease in domestic and residual use is a 1.0 million cwt increase in all rice exports to 105.0 million (all in long-grain) as exports increased recently to Western Hemisphere markets. Long-grain exports are forecast at 73.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain exports at 32.0 million. The decrease in 2014/15 all rice domestic and residual use is based primarily on total use implied from USDA’s Rice Stocks report on March 31.
USDA’s March 1 rice stocks were higher than expected and above trade expectations. All rice March 1 stocks totaled 120.8 million cwt (roughequivalent basis), up 24 percent from the previous year, and the highest since 2011. Implied all rice domestic and residual use for December-February 2014/15 was down 8 percent from the previous market year, and 5 percent below the previous 4-year average.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average price at the midpoint is projected at $12.30 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt from a month ago and down $3.10 per cwt from last year. The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price at the midpoint is forecast at $18.60 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt from last month, but 60 cents per cwt below a year ago. The California medium- and short-grain rice price is raised slightly from last month and the Other States price is unchanged.
The all rice price at the midpoint is projected at $14.20 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt from last month, and $2.10 per cwt below 2013/14. Global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are increased 0.9 million tons as the decrease in use adds to a slight increase in supplies. Global consumption (includes residual) is lowered nearly 0.65 million tons as projected use is lowered for Indonesia, Japan, and the United States, partially offset by increases for Pakistan and Thailand. Total rice supplies in 2014/15 are increased 0.3 million tons due to an increase in beginning stocks ( 0.6 million) more than offsetting a reduction in production (-0.3 million). The rise in global beginning stocks is due primarily to increases for Japan, Pakistan, and Taiwan. The reduction in global 2014/15 rice production results mainly from decreases for Indonesia, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa, partially offset by an increase for Pakistan.
Global rice exports for 2014/15 are lowered slightly due to reductions for Egypt, Japan, and Pakistan, partially offset by increases for Brazil, and the United States. Imports are lowered slightly for SubSaharan Africa and the Middle East, but raised for the United States.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 4,091 million bushels, up 5 million on increased imports. Soybean exports and crush projections are unchanged at 1,790 million and 1,795 million bushels, respectively. Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, and residual use is raised based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report.
U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 370 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Soybean oil supplies are increased this month with higher imports more than offsetting slightly lower production resulting from a lower oil extraction rate. Soybean oil domestic disappearance is raised on increased food use which offsets reductions for palm oil and canola oil consumption. Despite lower projected soybean oil exports, ending stocks are projected at 1.38 billion pounds, down 125 million from last month.
Projected prices for soybeans and soybean oil are reduced this month. The range for the seasonaverage soybean price is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint to $9.60 to $10.60 per bushel based on marketings to date and lower expected prices for the second half of the marketing year. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30 to 33 cents per pound, down 0.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355 to $385 per short ton, unchanged at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.8 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month. Gains for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed more than offset lower projections for peanuts, copra, palm kernel, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected at 315.5 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. Argentina soybean production is forecast at 57.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month on higher yields resulting from favorable rainfall and mild temperatures across much of the growing area.
India soybean production is reduced 0.7 million tons to 9.8 million reflecting below average yields resulting from an unusually short monsoon season. Uruguay soybean production is raised this month on higher harvested area. Changes for other crops include higher rapeseed production for India; higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina, Bolivia, and Russia; lower peanut production for Vietnam; lower cottonseed production for India and Australia; and lower copra production for the Philippines. Palm oil production is reduced for Malaysia on excessive rainfall in December and January and also for Thailand on dry conditions in the southern producing areas.
SUGAR: U.S. 2014/15 beginning sugar stocks are increased 13,874 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 1.810 million based on revised processors’ estimates of 2013/14 cane sugar production and other miscellaneous adjustments that resulted in an increase to the ending stocks estimate for 2013/14. Imports for 2014/15 are increased by 36,524 STRV to 3.464 million, stemming mostly from sugar entering under free trade agreements that was previously expected to be imported in the first quarter of 2015/16. With no other changes, the 2014/15 ending stocks projection rises by 50,398 STRV to 1.700 million, implying a 13.9 percent ending stocks-to-use ratio.
Mexico 2014/15 sugar production is reduced by 101,372 metric tons (MT) to 6.050 million due to a slower than anticipated production pace, especially in the state of Veracruz that has experienced excessive precipitation in the first 3 months of 2015, with especially severe weather in March. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 50,000 MT to 4.250 million, based on a strong pace-to-date through February.
Exports to destinations other than the United States are reduced by 125,000 MT to 200,000 because of much lower world raw sugar prices than existed when certain contracts for export were originally negotiated. Exports to the United States are still forecast at 1.306 million MT, the maximum amount as set under the terms of the Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigations on Sugar from Mexico, dated December 19, 2014. Ending stocks are projected residually at 975,069 MT, an increase of 26,372 from last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2015 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower turkey production. The forecast for broiler production is unchanged. Beef is higher on greater cow slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
Pork production is increased on higher-than-expected firstquarter slaughter and expectations of larger second-half slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on March 27, estimated the December-February pig crop was 9 percent higher and indicated that producers intend to farrow 2 percent more sows in March-May. Turkey production is reduced based on slaughter and hatchery data to date. The egg production forecast is lowered based on recent hatchery data.
The 2015 beef import forecast is raised from last month as demand for processing grade beef remains strong and strength of the dollar makes the United States an attractive market. Beef exports for 2015 are raised based on trade data to date. Pork exports are unchanged from last month, but the forecast for imports is raised as the strong dollar makes the United States an attractive market despite larger production.
The broiler export forecast is lowered. The recovery in exports after U.S.-wide highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related restrictions has been limited by weak economic growth in a number of key markets and the strong dollar. Turkey exports are also reduced as the strength of the dollar makes it difficult to expand exports in the face of HPAI restrictions from a number of countries.
The egg export forecast is unchanged. Cattle prices for 2015 are raised as demand for fed cattle remains strong. The hog price forecast is reduced as greater production pressures prices. Broiler prices are unchanged at the midpoint. Turkey prices are lowered. The egg price is raised on strong demand and slightly lower production.
The milk production forecast for 2015 is lowered from last month as growth in output per cow is constrained by dry conditions in the West. Fat basis imports are raised on demand for butterfat, but skim-solids imports are unchanged. Exports are hampered by relatively weak international prices and the strong dollar; thus forecasts for both fat and skim-solids are reduced from last month.
Product price forecasts for butter and cheese are raised on domestic demand strength. However, relatively weak exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) are expected to pressure prices lower. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price is raised on the strength of cheese prices, but the Class IV price is reduced as a lower NDM price more than offsets a higher butter price. The all milk price is forecast at $17.10 to $17.60 per cwt. COTTON: The U.S. 2014/15 cotton supply and demand estimates include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month.
Production is raised to 16.3 million bales to reflect the USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2015. With no revisions to domestic mill use or exports, ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 4.4 million. The range of 59 to 61 cents per pound for the estimated marketing year average price received by producers is reduced 1 cent on the upper end, based on prices to date.
The aggregate 2014/15 world supply and demand estimates show very marginal changes from last month. World production is virtually the same at 119 million bales, as decreases for India and Uzbekistan are offset by increases for the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, and others. Consumption is raised marginally, as increases for India, Vietnam, and Pakistan are mostly offset by reductions for Turkey, Brazil, Hong Kong, and others. World trade is lowered slightly, including increases in imports by China and Vietnam and reductions for several other countries. Global stocks of 110 million bales are virtually unchanged from last month.
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