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WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised this month on both increased beginning stocks and larger winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are higher with a 5-million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 exports partly offset by a 2-million-bushel reduction in imports. Projected production for 2015/16 is up 34 million bushels mainly on improved prospects for the Hard Red Winter wheat crop in the Central Plains following the late season rains. However, early harvest reports indicate that some areas receiving excessive rainfall have lodging and increased disease pressure. Feed use for 2015/16 is raised 15 million bushels to 195 million, and ending stocks increased 21 million bushels to 814 million. These would be the largest ending stocks since the 2010/11. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.10 per bushel on both ends to $4.40 to $5.40.
Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.1 million tons as a 2.6-million-ton increase in production is partly offset by a 0.6-million-ton reduction in beginning stocks. Production is raised 1.5 million tons for Russia and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine on improved spring rains following last autumn’s drought. The EU crop is raised 0.4 million tons on good growing conditions in United Kingdom and France. Partially offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in Argentina, and 0.3-million-ton reductions each for Algeria and Tunisia. Beginning stocks are reduced 0.7 million tons each for Iran, Russia, and Syria on trade changes for the 2014/15 crop year. The largest beginning stocks increase is 0.5 million tons for Argentina on lower 2014/15 exports. Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised 0.2 million tons each for Bangladesh, EU, Morocco, Philippines, and Thailand.
Global wheat trade and consumption for 2015/16 are raised with larger foreign supplies. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons for EU on large supplies in Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons for Algeria on a smaller crop. Imports are raised 0.2 million tons each for Egypt, Tunisia, Thailand, and Yemen. World wheat exports are raised 1.5 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each raised 1.0 million tons on larger crops. Partially offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina. Foreign consumption is raised 2.6 million tons with almost all of it on higher feeding. Feeding is raised 1.0 million tons in EU, 0.5 million tons in Russia, and 0.4 million tons in Thailand. At 202.4 million tons, global stocks are down 0.9 million tons from last month but still the largest since 2009/10.
COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies is raised slightly this month with increases in corn and oats beginning stocks outweighing a decline for barley. Projected corn production for 2015/16 is unchanged at 13,630 million bushels, 4 percent below last year’s record level. Corn beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised with a 25-million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 forecast corn use in ethanol production based on data reported in the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report through April. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1,771 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, the same as for beginning stocks. The range for the 2015/16 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, compared with the 2014/15 range of $3.55 to $3.75 per bushel, which is also unchanged this month.
Changes to 2015/16 oats and barley beginning stocks and supplies reflect 2014/15 changes to forecast trade. Oats imports for 2014/15 are raised 2 million bushels on the latest indications of trade. Barley exports for 2014/15 are projected 400,000 bushels larger also based on the latest indications. Farm price projections for sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged this month for 2014/15 and 2015/16.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 2.8 million tons, mostly reflecting larger 2014/15 production and carryout for Brazil. Brazil corn production for 2014/15 is raised 3 million tons to a near-record 81.0 million with higher area reported for the second or safrinha crop that will be harvested over the coming months. Yields are also projected higher reflecting extended rainfall through May, well beyond the normal end of the rainy season in central west Brazil. Global corn production for 2015/16 is projected down 0.5 million tons with reductions for Zambia, Nepal, Zimbabwe, and EU more than offsetting a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia. Russia 2015/16 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons on a higher area and yield. Planting progress data indicate a year-to-year increase in seeded area, which is also reflected in higher year-to-year imports of agricultural chemicals. While hybrid seed imports have been reported down from last year, these imports have also been stronger than expected as corn remained a favorable alternative compared with other spring crops.
Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised slightly supported by higher expected corn trade. Foreign corn exports are raised for 2015/16 with a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia as higher production makes the country’s corn supplies very competitive in the Middle East and North Africa. Corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for Zambia, despite this month’s lowered production outlook, as demand for imported corn, especially white corn, soars in the region with crop shortfalls in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 3.3 million tons higher mostly on the higher stocks expected for Brazil. Small reductions in corn stocks for Russia and EU offset most of the increase projected this month for the United States.
RICE: U.S. rice 2015/16 supply and use balance sheets are little changed from last month. All rice beginning stocks are raised 2.5 million cwt with long-grain rice stocks raised 0.5 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks raised 2.0 million. All rice imports are raised 0.5 million cwt to 25.0 million (all long-grain), up 2 percent from revised 2014/15. Medium- and short-grain exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 34.0 million as a large outstanding sales balance to Northeast Asia in 2014/15 will likely be shipped in 2015/16. The large balance was caused in part due to work slowdowns and stoppages at ports along the West Coast earlier this year. This labor dispute has since been resolved, but a large backlog at the ports still exists. Additionally, Turkey has not accepted some U.S. medium-grain rice shipments in 2014/15 for phytosanitary reasons in recent months. The long-grain export projection is unchanged at 76.0 million cwt, but up 4 percent from the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.1 million, up 23 percent from 2014/15, and the largest since 2010/11. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 11.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 24 percent below the previous year’s revised estimate.
The U.S. 2015/16 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month compared to $11.90 to $12.10 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt compared to $17.80 to $18.20 for the year earlier. The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $12.30 to $13.30 per cwt, compared to $13.20 to $13.60 per cwt for 2014/15. The California and Other States medium-and short-grain prices are unchanged from last month.
Global 2015/16 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 481.7 million tons, 0.4 million below a month ago. Brazil’s rice crop is forecast at 8.0 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month, a result of a reduction in area. This crop will not be planted until October-December 2015. The change is based mostly on a reduction in the 2014/15 rice crop based on recent estimates from the government of Brazil. Global consumption is nearly unchanged at a record 489.0 million tons. Global 2015/16 trade (imports and exports) are also nearly unchanged from a month ago. World export projections are raised slightly for Guyana and the United States. Global ending stocks are forecast at 91.4 million tons, down slightly from last month, down 7.2 million from the previous year, and the smallest stocks since 2007/08. The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7 percent is unchanged from a month ago, but down 1.7 points from the previous year, and the lowest since 2006/07.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2015/16 include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush and export projections for 2014/15. Soybean crush for 2014/15 is raised 10 million bushels to 1,815 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance which is partly offset by reduced exports of soybean meal. Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects stronger-than-expected use for the marketing year to date. Soybean exports are projected at 1,810 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting outstanding sales and shipments through May. Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced 25 million bushels to 475 million.
The 2015/16 season-average price for soybeans is projected at $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.9 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean production for Russia is raised on higher area projections based on reported planting progress to date. Rapeseed production for EU is raised 0.5 million tons to 22.1 million on improved yield prospects. Other changes include increased soybean production for EU and reduced rapeseed production for Ukraine. Argentina soybean production for 2014/15 is raised 1 million tons to 59.5 million mainly on increased harvested area.
Global soybean supply and use changes include increased crush and lower stocks for both 2014/15 and 2015/16. Brazil’s soybean crush, meal production, and domestic disappearance for 2014/15 are raised based on recently released official data. With the lower stocks in Brazil only partly offset by higher stocks in Argentina, global soybean stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar beginning stocks for 2015/16 are increased by 200,523 short tons, raw value (STRV) due to changes made in the 2014/15 supply and use balances of greater early beet sugar production (33,480) from the 2015/16 sugarbeet crop, reduced tariff-rate quota shortfall (58,103), and reduced deliveries for human consumption (108,940).
U.S. beet sugar production for 2015/16 is forecast at 5.040 million STRV, an increase of 269,569 and based on analysis of early planting and favorable weather, and also consistent with beet processors’ forecasts published in USDA’s Sweetener Market Data. There is no change to cane sugar production for 2015/16. Imports for 2015/16 are forecast at 3.215 million STRV, a reduction of 595,053. This reduction results from lower expected 2015/16 sugar exports from Mexico to the United States based on the implied Target Quantity of U.S. Sugar Needs defined in the CVD Suspension Agreement of December 19, 2014, assuming a 2015/16 specialty sugar quota equal to the quota for 2014/15. All other 2015/16 import projections (including the tariff-rate quota shortfall) are unchanged.
For 2015/16, U.S. deliveries for human consumption are lowered 110,098 STRV to 11.875 million. The same year-over-year percentage increase from last month (1.06 percent) is applied to the updated 2014/15 deliveries estimate of 11.750 million to arrive at the updated projection for June. Ending stocks are forecast as the difference between total supply and use. The forecast is 1.533 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.6 percent.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2015 is lower than last month, but higher for 2016. Beef production for 2015 is lowered as fed cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced and cow and bull slaughter is expected lower during the year. However, placements of cattle in late 2015 are expected to be higher as forage supplies in much of the country have improved and the slaughter of these cattle in 2016 supports an increase in the 2016 production forecast. Pork production for 2015 is raised due to higher-than-expected second-quarter slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 26 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2015. Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is raised from last month based on hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has significantly affected supplies of turkeys and the expected pace of flock recovery results in a reduced 2016 production forecast. Egg production for 2015 and 2016 is also lowered as HPAI has impacted the laying flock, and the forecast into 2016 reflects the expected speed at which the flock can be rebuilt.
Forecasts for 2015 and 2016 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; no change is made to the export forecast. Pork imports for 2015 are reduced, but exports are higher based on the pace of trade to date. No change is made to 2016 pork trade. Broiler exports for 2015 are lowered as demand has been below expectations; no change is made to 2016. Turkey exports are reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as supplies are tightened by HPAI.
Cattle prices for 2015 are reduced from last month on prices to date and the forecast for 2016 is reduced on expected larger supplies of fed cattle. Hog prices are higher in 2015 but unchanged for 2016. Broiler prices are unchanged as continued strong domestic demand is expected to absorb increased supplies of broiler meat. Turkey and egg prices for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month on tighter supplies.
Milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month on gains in output per cow. The fat basis export forecast for 2015 is raised on higher cheese exports. Skim solids exports for both 2015 and 2016 are raised on larger exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Fat basis imports are raised for both 2015 and 2016 on expectations of strong demand for imported cheese.
Butter, NDM, and whey prices for 2015 are forecast lower on relatively abundant supplies of those products. The cheese price forecast is raised on strong demand. NDM and whey prices are reduced for 2016. The 2016 butter price range is narrowed. The Class III price forecast is raised for 2015 on stronger cheese prices but reduced for 2016 on lower whey prices. Class IV prices for 2015 and 2016 are lowered on weaker product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.15 to $17.75 per cwt for 2015 and $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt for 2016.
COTTON: The 2015/16 U.S. cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged from last month. The 2014/15 U.S. balance sheet is also unchanged, except that the estimated marketing year average price received by producers is raised 0.5 cents to 60.5 cents per pound.
The 2015/16 world cotton supply and demand projections reflect very slight revisions, mainly marginal decreases in beginning and ending stocks. The lower stocks result from changes made in 2014/15, including a combination of lower production in India, which is based on arrivals at gins, and slightly higher India exports. Reduced stocks in India are partially offset by higher estimated stocks in China, owing to a 300,000-bale increase in estimated imports to 8.0 million bales. Minor historical revisions are made to the balance sheets for Zambia and Zimbabwe.
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