Brazilian Trucker Woes Continue

Published on: 10:50AM Apr 23, 2015

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for April 23, 2015 at 5:15 am.

Grain markets are mixed with soybeans leading the rally on strike headlines out of Brazil. Outside markets are trading near unchanged in overnight session.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:

The USDA weekly export sales report will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are corn 400,000 to 600,000 tonnes, soybeans (100,000) to 150,000 tonnes, soymeal 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes, soyoil 0 to 20,000 tonnes and wheat 0 to 100,000 tonnes.

Weekly ethanol production was 930,000 barrels per day in the latest week. This is slightly higher than the 924,000 barrels per day from the previous week which is 2% above last year. In order to meet USDA’s corn for ethanol estimate we will have to run 5.4% under last year from now until the end of August. On the bearish side; stocks rose by 697,000 barrels this week which puts it at the largest level in seven weeks.

China imported 243,000 tonnes of distillers' grains in March, down 44 percent from a year ago, though triple February's shipments.

Allendale Meteorologist, Ryan Martin’s weather commentary can be found by clicking here.

A quick view of how much corn poultry consumes over a lifetime gathered from the University of Illinois. Turkeys: 1 bushel of corn per bird lifetime, 18 weeks to grow out, ration is heavy on bean meal up front and then mostly corn at the end. Chickens: Layers on a 65-70% corn diet, total ration consumption is 1/4 lb. per bird per day of which 65-70% is corn.

Stats Canada will release their planting estimates at 7:30 this morning. Analyst estimates are for 24.2 million acres of wheat and 20.2 million acres of canola.

Brazilian Government said they would approve a reference table for freight rates but confirmed they would not and could not enforce any such table. The independent truckers are mobilizing and promising stoppages. While the government is dispatching police to break up attempts of road blockage. The bottom line will be “How much support will the movement garner?”

(Reuters) Farmers in the central U.S. grain and livestock states continued to take out new operating loans in the first quarter of 2015 as low grain prices failed to cover high costs for seed, rents and crop chemicals ahead of spring field work, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said.

Allendale’s very own Rich Nelson will be the guest on today’s University of Illinois radio show. There will likely be questions on the bird flu impact on meat and grain prices.

Pork in cold storage was under the trade estimate as stocks fell by 18 million pounds which is greater than the average drawdown for March of 16 million pounds. This number should be a bit of a surprise as March production was higher than a year ago which suggests good demand.

Beef stocks for April 1 were 479.784 million pounds, less than expected. Beef stocks fell by 12 million pounds compared to a normal 3 million pound increase. Chicken in storage is up 27% versus a year ago.

Cash trade is reacting to increasing supplies and weak futures prices as packers paid $158 in the Southern Plains. Last week’s USDA compiled average price was $161.

Lean hog futures remain on the defensive as bird flu spreads across the northern cornbelt and poultry importing countries ban purchases.

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .24 and select down .03. The CME Feeder Index is 217.48. Pork cutout values are down 1.13.

Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT           

  • May Corn   - 1/2      
  • May Beans 3 3/4     
  • May Wheat   1 1/4
  • May Soymeal 1.40
  • Jun Dlr     .02
  • Jun S&P   -5.50
  • Jun Crude   -.18
  • Jun Gold    1.60

Technical Chart of the Day

daily chart

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