Can USDA Report Provide Support to Grain Producers?
Sep 28, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 28, 2018.
Grain Market Traders had quiet markets on Thursday as they position for today’s quarterly grain stock report. Trade is expecting to see friendly corn and wheat numbers, while soybeans are anticipating bigger numbers.
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks will be announced today at 11:00 AM CDT. Trade is estimating Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.01 billion bushels, which is 12 percent smaller than a year ago. The Sept. 1 soybean supply is estimated at 401 million bushels, which is 33 percent larger than a year ago.
Weekly Export Sales were released yesterday morning. Wheat export sales were above expectations at 657,000 mt (estimate 250,000 – 500,000 mt), Corn export sales were 1,712,000 mt (estimate 900,000 – 1,300,000 mt) and soybean export sales at 871,000 mt (estimate 600,000 – 1,000,000 mt).
U.S. Corn Futures reached their highest prices in more than a month on Thursday due to strong export demand. Traders adjusted positions ahead of tomorrow’s crop report which is expected to show supplies tightened over the past year.
U.S. Soybean Futures are recovering from a near 10-year low hit last week due to worries over a growing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. U.S. soy shipments to China, the world's top importer of soybeans, has halted just ahead of what could be a record U.S. harvest.
NAFTA Trade Talks continued on Thursday as Canada shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism that a NAFTA deal was moving too slow earlier in the day. Canada made clear they want to keep negotiating as long as there was a chance of success. Insiders say Canada has no alternative but to keep trying to settle their differences between the U.S. Trudeau’s inner circle acknowledges it is quite possible the U.S. might slap tariffs on Canadian autos, which would have major consequences on their economy.
The White House is considering imposing restrictions on trading of biofuel credits, hoping to discourage speculation and reduce costs for oil refiners to comply with U.S. biofuels policy, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. (Reuters)
World Sugar prices are the lowest in more than 10 years this week, primarily due to over-production in India, Thailand and the European Union in the current season. Brazil, the world's largest producer of sugar, has coped well with the recent glut by converting more of its cane into ethanol.
USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report was released yesterday as slightly positive. All Hogs showed 103% (103.5% estimate), Kept for breeding was 103.5% (103.2% estimate), Kept for market was 102.9% (103.5% estimate) and pig crop at 103.3% (103.2% estimate).
December Live Hogs traded sharply lower yesterday with resistance at $58.65 and support at $53.82.
December Live Cattle closed lower on Thursday staying near the highs made in February and March 2018 and November 2017. Critical resistance remains at the $119 level and support at $116.62.
Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.14 and select down 0.39. The CME Feeder Index is at 158.13. Pork cutout value was down -0.36.