Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for December 6, 2017.
Grain markets continue to monitor the latest weather maps out of South America as more meteorologist call La Nina official. Outside markets watch the latest out of Washington regarding the tax cut conference committee.
La Nina's impact on South America and whether or not it will continue into the US growing season in 2018 will be major discussion points on day 1 of our annual outlook conference series. Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. will share his year ahead outlook and answer your questions, live. See the complete agenda and register.
CME Group lowered the hedge margin on corn by $100 to now $650 per contract (front months), Dec 18 and beyond is $550. Soybean margins were lowered by $250 to $1,650 per contract, and Chicago Wheat was lowered by $150 to $950 per contract. KC Wheat margins were also reduced.
Informa lowered its estimate of Brazil's 2017/18 soybean and corn crops, reducing their soybean estimate by 1 million tonnes and corn by 3 million. Their estimates now stand at 110 MT and 89 MT respectively. Argentina's 2017/18 wheat production is estimated at 18 MT, up 300,000 from their previous estimate.
Brazilian soybean exports were reported at 2.14 million tonnes in November. This was just under the 2.49 from October but sharply up from 0.32 from one year ago. Soymeal exports ran 1.07 million tonnes, up from 0.87 from one year ago. Soyoil exports totaled 73,500 tonnes last month. This was sharply over the 56,968 from one year ago. Corn exports were strong at 3.520 million tonnes. That was down from October's 5.028 mt.
The U.S. International Trade Commission on Tuesday made a final finding that biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia harm U.S. producers, ensuring that anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties remain in effect. (Reuters)
IKAR, raised its estimate of total Russian grain exports from 44.5 million tonnes to now 46.0. Of that, wheat exports were raised from 34.0 to 35.3.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports the Pacific Ocean temperature drop in the area east of Australia has fallen enough to trigger the La Nina call. They note this particular event will be a weak one as Indian Ocean temperatures and other factors may mitigate its strength. Analysts are lowering their wheat production estimates as a result of the weather phenomenon.
Funds were estimated buyers of 3,000 corn, 9,500 soybeans, 7,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil in yesterday's trade. They were sellers of 3,000 wheat.
ADP Employment leads the list of economic reports out this morning at 7:15 CST. Mortgage Applications, Labor Costs, and Crude Inventories will also catch the attention of traders today.
February cattle typically break hard from November 26 until December 10. On the June, this runs from November 27 until December 9. This break into the second week of December is typically the lowest price traded on those contracts all the way through their expiration. It is important to remember though that this year's November price action did not follow the seasonals exactly.
February Hogs still have a gap on the charts from 69.15 - 69.32. It doesn't have to be filled, but chartist suggest it's only a matter of time.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .89 and select up 1.09. The CME Feeder Index is 156.30. Pork cutout value is up .84.
Technical Chart of the Day
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