Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for July 7, 2015 at 5:15 am.
Grain markets are lower coming from profit taking, weather forecast and simply the old adage “you have to feed a bull everyday”. The outside markets are watching for any news out of the summit between Euro Leaders and for any fallout from the Chinese stock market slide.
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Update - Midday Weather Update:
US corn crop conditions improve by 1% to 69% good/excellent while trade was expecting a 1% decline. Soybean national average conditions remained unchanged at 63%, trade was expecting a 2% decline. Soybean bean planting remained slow with only 96% planted when normally 100% should be done. Missouri has over 25% of their soybeans to plant as of Sunday and the states of IL and KS still have 6% to finish. This relates to approximately 3.4 million acres to plant.
US winter wheat harvest progressed last week by bringing the total to 55% harvested vs. 59% average. Spring wheat conditions slipped by 1% to 40% G/E vs. 31% last year.
The weather forecast for the Midwest over the next 2 weeks would be bearish under normal years. However we are anything but normal in 2015 which will keep the grain markets jumpy to any aberration from ideal weather during corn pollination.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were even larger buyer than trade was expecting. The managed money funds were net buyers of 165,128 contracts to take them from a short position to net long 70,606. They were net buyers of 65,767 in soybeans and 66,822 in wheat leaving them net long in both commodities. This report was gathered as of last Tuesday’s close. The remainder of last week it is expect they added even more long positions.
USDA will release July Supply and Demand on Friday at 11:00 am. Historically the USDA has changed corn yield only 8 times since 1993 and soybeans only 5 times. Talk to your Allendale Representative for ideas on managing risk through the Friday’s report.
Lean hog futures have been higher in recent days as traders are concerned that the rally in grain prices will reduce the finishing weights and further reduce farrowing intentions.
Pasture conditions continue to improve as reported by the USDA. Grass feeding gains should be excellent this year as cost of gains in feedlots have increased sharply in the last 2 weeks. Trading range support is around 148 in August cattle futures.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 2.47 and select down 4.13. The CME Feeder Index is 221.81. Pork cutout values are up 1.27.
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