Corn Harvest Lower Than Expected
Sep 19, 2017
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 19, 2017.
Grain markets await the next news story to move prices as US harvest reports officially begin.
Corn harvest in the US was reported 7% complete vs. the 10% analyst estimate, and the 11% five-year average. The crop remained rated 61% good-to-excellent (GTE).
Soybeans were rated 59% GTE, a drop of 1% vs last week. They were reported 4% harvested, just below the five-year average of 5%. 41% were dropping leaves (22% last week, 43% five-year average).
Winter Wheat was 13% planted through Sunday the 17th. The five-year average for this week is 15%.
Over the past 20 years, from the September to the January USDA WASDE report, corn yields were raised 14 times for an average of 2.2% (equivalent of 173.7 bpa). There were 6 years of declines that averaged 2.5% (implying this year at 165.1), according to Allendale's Rich Nelson.
Export inspections for the week ending September 14th showed wheat exports of 464,375 tonnes, soybeans of 928,575, and corn 676,819.
Weather doesn't look likely to promote any excitement in the grain markets in the near term. As Drew Lerner of World Weather puts it, "the weather through Thursday will be mostly uneventful in key crop areas of the United States with the exception of strong to severe thunderstorms in the eastern half of the Northern Plains late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The storms will promote some large hail and damaging wind in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota."
FranceAgriMer estimated the corn crop in France at 79% good to excellent. That was unchanged with their previous estimate. This remains over last year's 54% in the same week.
China sold 8,146 tonnes of wheat in its auction overnight at an average price of $385 per tonne. The sale was 5.7% of the total wheat available for auction.
Managed money funds were net sellers of 6,000 corn contracts, 500 soybeans, 4,000 wheat, and 3,000 soyoil in yesterday's trade. They were estimated buyers of 1,000 soymeal.
Economic reports out today include Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Import/Export Prices. All are due at 7:30 AM CDT.
Cattle showlist, the number of finished cattle offered to packers each week, was be 18,600 head smaller than the previous week (out yesterday).
Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports will be released on Friday at 2:00 PM CDT. Look for average analyst estimates today or tomorrow, but we expect COF will imply lower than last year placements for the month of August.
Over the past four weeks, cattle feeders sold 91,491 head of fewer cattle than last year. With this week's smaller showlist, we will now push to week number five of lax marketings (over 100,000 head now).
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.20 and select up 1.85. The CME Feeder Index is 150.09. Pork cutout value is up .33.
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