Corn Plantings Beat Expectations
May 16, 2017
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 16, 2017.
Grain markets are mixed in the overnights as traders monitor planting progress ahead of the next round of rains.
Weekly Crop Progress, out yesterday afternoon, reported corn 71% planted. This was above the average analyst estimate of 68%, and the five-year average of 70%. Soybeans were reported 32% planted, above the estimate of 28%, and inline with the five-year average.
Spring wheat was reported 78% planted, well above the analyst expectation and the five-year average of 73%. Winter wheat was reported 51% good-to-excellent, a drop of 2% vs last week, but above the five-year average of 46%.
NOPA reported that 139.134 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April, below the expectation of 145.7. Crush has run below last year for three months in a row now (Feb -2.3%, Mar -2.3%, Apr -5.7%). Year to date crush has fallen to 0.8% over last year. To hit USDA’s whole-year goal the May – August crush must run 4.6% over last year.
Export Inspections for the week ending 5/11/2017 reported wheat exports of 691,226 tonnes, corn 1,395,853, and soybeans at 281,465.
Brazil is making it harder for ethanol importers to take US product in an attempt to protect its local product. Though they will not impose a tariff at this time, new rules will be put in place which favor Brazilian ethanol.
China's Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces will pay greater subsidies to soybean farmers than corn growers in an effort to reduce their corn stocks.
Societe Generale de Surveillance reports Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 of 613,465 tonnes. That was 7.1% over the same period last month. Intertek Testing Services, estimated them at 617,697 tonnes for the same period. That would be 8.9% over their numbers from last month.
Chart watchers will have their eye on the April low of 4.16 in the July Wheat contract should further weakness be seen in wheat.
Managed Money funds were estimated sellers of 7,000 corn contracts, 6,000 wheat, and 2,000 soymeal in yesterday's trade. They were estimated buyers of 3,500 soybeans, and 2,000 soyoil.
Cash hogs were lower last week but rebounded yesterday. The Iowa/Minnesota is at its highest value since February 22. Cash pork is at its highest value since February 21.
Cattle traders are concerned that cash beef may soon confirm a peak after rallying 23% since the start of the year for choice.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up 1.71 and select down .01. The CME Feeder Index is 142.98. Pork cutout value is up .68.
Markets At-A-Glance – 5:30 AM
- Jul Corn -1 1/2
- Jul Beans 1/4
- Jul Wheat -3/4
- Jul Soymeal .30
- Jul Soy oil .06
- Jun Dlr -.41
- Jun S&P -.80
- Jun Crude .23
- Jun Gold 4.00
Technical Chart of the Day
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