Delays in South Offset by Progress in North
Apr 21, 2015
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for April 21, 2015 at 5:15 am.
Grain markets are lower for a combination of reason; planting progress, less rain and headwinds from US. Dollar.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
Corn planting progress showed the states of MN, IL, IA and SD were busy last week. USDA put the total corn plantings at 9% complete compared to 13% average and 10% trade estimate.
Spring wheat planting progress was on fire as the northern plains added another 19% to have a total of 36% planted verses 19% for the 5 year average. Winter wheat Good/Excellent conditions remained the same as last week at 42%. Traders were expecting an improvement to 44% due to the rain in the southern plains.
A portion of Ryan Martin's weather comments from yesterday: Evaporation rates will slow due to the colder air. The next system we are watching is on track for this weekend – Saturday and Sunday over the Corn Belt. Low pressure tracks out of KS into MO and will have a strong circulation similar to this past weekend’s system. Models right now are showing a tendency to keep this low south, curving it toward the OH River. We still like a track that is farther north…but for now will have to sit back and wait to see if that can develop…Read More.
Allendale’s Rich Nelson looked at planted acres on March 31st report compared to June 30 planting number and found that on average corn planted acreage increase by 674,000 acres. Soybean planted acres were down 10 out of the last 15 for an average of 913,000 acres.
StatsCan will release their first acreage estimate for 2015/16 on Thursday April 23rd, trade looking for small acreage adjustments.
May options for Ag commodities will expire Friday followed by first notice day for May futures on Thursday, April 30th.
Argentina said it had authorized the export of an additional 3.5 million tonnes of the 2014/2015 corn crop. They had already authorized the export of 8 million tonnes of corn late last year.
(Reuters) Iowa, the top U.S. egg-producing state, found a lethal strain of bird flu in millions of hens at an egg-laying facility on Monday, the worst case so far in a national outbreak that prompted Wisconsin to declare a state of emergency. The infected Iowa birds were being raised near the city of Harris by Sunrise Farms. The facility houses 3.8 million hens, according to the company, which sells eggs to food manufacturers, government agencies and retailers.
Second quarter beef cattle supplies are determined by the amount of cattle placed during the August – November period of the previous year when placements were down 1.6%. Combine the lower placements with current slaughter weighs (2 to 3% above a year ago) and the results gives you larger than a year ago production. This outlook is a reason for the lower futures prices going forward. But the question is has the futures already priced in the pending increases?
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.35 and select up 1.23. The CME Feeder Index is 217.66. Pork cutout values are down .13.
Markets as of 5:15 AM CDT
- May Corn -3 3/4
- May Beans -4 1/2
- May Wheat -4 1/4
- May Soymeal -2.70
- Jun Dlr .33
- Jun S&P 8.25
- May Crude -.23
- Jun Gold 3.90
Technical Chart of the Day
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