Fridays Close Could Set The Stage For Sunday Night
Jul 17, 2015
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for July 17, 2015 at 5:15 am.
Grain markets are steady to slightly lower as weather patterns shift to a warmer “summer like” period. Macro markets are all a bit lower as well as trade digests the happenings of this past week.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
The Allendale Conference Series starts on Tuesday July 21st. The lead-off speaker is Allendale Meteorologist, Ryan Martin who will share his forecast for the remainder of this growing season and into harvest. Ryan will cover the major growing areas of the U.S., plus will shed some insight into how the weather will impact South American crops as well. As with all sessions, Q&A will be live, but if you have a question now, pre-submit it so we can work it in to the presentation. Get all the details by Clicking Here.
The warm summer like weather for this weekend and in the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day forecast has grain traders on edge. The words being used to describe this shift in temps are ridging, and doom which are fueling the bullish flame during pollination. However when talking to our weatherman it would suggest a favorable mix of moisture and heat will supply excellent growing conditions for Midwest crops.
NOAA released their monthly and long-term forecasts which suggests below normal temps for most of Midwest and above normal precipitation for the southern cornbelt.
US corn export sales for the period from July 2 to 9 came to 331,058 metric tonnes for old crop. Sales are now 99% of USDA's whole-year goal, down from the normal 103% sold by this time.
Soybean sales of 45,505 tonnes were noted for old crop. Sales are now 102% of USDA's whole-year goal, down from the 103% normal pace for the 2014/15 crop. New crop soybean sales are 5.5 million tonnes behind a year ago. Soymeal demand is 1.0 million tonnes less than last year at this time.
Consultancy Strategie grains cuts forecast of 2015 EU soft wheat crop by 0.7 million tonnes to 140.9 million tonnes or a 6% decline from last year. They also cut the EU maize production by 0.7 million tonnes to 66.7 million tonnes this would be a 12% decline from last year.
A once-idled ethanol plant in South Bend is producing and shipping the fuel again says Noble Americas who bought the plant two years ago. Noble announced that after an extensive retrofitting process they have been shipping fuel for a few months.
Missouri Governor has written a letter to Ag Secretary Vilsack asking for an extension to USDA/RMA insurance reporting date. On Wednesday the Missouri Attorney General filed a claim and wants a judge to step in and force the USDA to extend reporting date.
The US Dollar continues to remain firm on the testimony of Fed Chairman Yellen in Washington and as the Euro deals with the bailout of Greece.
Macro reports to be released at 7:30 this morning are Housing Starts and Payments and Real Earnings.
The 15-cut average for beef increased to $5.73 a pound from $5.52 last week. It gained versus $5.49 a year earlier, according to the Wall street Journal survey. Grocers listed higher prices for ground beef and ground chuck, as well as some steak cuts, with increases from a week earlier for strip and rib-eye steaks. The five-cut average for pork prices fell to $2.75 per pound from $2.99 last week. Prices were lower than the $3.41 average a year earlier. Chicken prices climbed. The two-cut average increased to $2.03 a pound from $1.85 last week. The average was down from $2.06 per pound a year earlier.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down .99 and select down 2.89. The CME Feeder Index is 222.92. Pork cutout values are up .10.
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