Good Harvest Weather Slow Export Sales Hold Down Grain Markets
Oct 22, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 22, 2018!
Grain Markets traded in a tight range with all grains closing lower. For the week, corn futures were down 6.75 cents, soybean futures down 10.75 cents, wheat futures down 2.5 cents, soybean meal futures down $3.80 and soybean oil futures fell 25 points.
Crop Progress Report will be released today at 2 pm (CDT). Trade is looking for corn harvest to be at 49% (38% last week, 47% average), soybean harvest at 52% (38% last week, 68% average). Winter wheat planting expected at 77% (65% last week, 80% average).
Commitments of Traders report showed a mixed sentiment last week. Overall traders were estimated weekly sellers of -6,077 corn contracts, buyers of 15,680 soybean contracts, buyers of 9,121 wheat contracts, buyers of 9,635 soymeal, and sellers of -3,000 soyoil contracts. Live cattle were estimated sellers of -9,639 contracts and live hogs were sellers of -22,428.
Managed Money were estimated buyers on Friday’s COT report. Fund bought 54,186 contracts (net position 20,154), soybean buyers of 5,033 contracts (net position -36,368), wheat buyers of 92 contracts (net position -16,793), soybean oil buyers of 8,012 (net position -33,106) and soybean meal buyers of 3,227 (net position 41,990).
AgRural reported regular rains have secured enough soil moisture in Mato Grosso, Brazil's top producing state, to boost seeding to 62 percent of the expected area in the state (14 percent over last week, 27 percent last year and 26 p`ercent for five-year average).
U.S. Farmers seeking operating and equipment loans of at least $1 million jumped sharply during the third quarter of 2018, has fueled a spike in agricultural lending needs at large banks as trade tensions have increased the economic strain in the farming sector according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Farm real estate loan delinquencies for the third quarter of 2018 was higher than the rate of delinquencies on all bank loans for the first time in nearly 20 years, according Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation data.
The Commission, head negotiators of the 28 EU nations, said it will open formal talks in the coming days to increase U.S. beef exports into Europe and increase the United State's share of an existing 45,000-tonne quota. The U.S. share of that quota has slipped to less than 30 percent for the year-end of June, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).
Cattle on Feed report was viewed friendly compared to traders expectations. On Feed (as of October 1) was 5.4% over last year at 11.400 million head (last month was 105.9). September placements were 4.6% under last year at 2.051 million head (last month at 107.4). September marketing was 3.6% under last year for a total of 1.719 million (last month at 100.2).
China has now confirmed 41 outbreaks of the African Swine Fever, affecting 27 cities across the country, Wang Zongli, deputy director of the China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, said at a conference in Zhengzhou. He warned that both detection and prevention of the disease has been very difficult.
Cold Storage will be out today at 2:00 PM CDT. Allendale projects a 591 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of September. Beef stocks, at 537 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 467.
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 1.11 and select up 1.89. The CME Feeder Index is at 155.36. Pork cutout value was up .30.