Grain Markets Hang on Map Updates
Apr 19, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for April 19, 2018.
Grain markets are keeping a close eye on extended weather maps. As rains are added or removed from forecasts, wheat especially, responds. This mornings export sales report will be viewed with interest as traders look for confirmation of big soybean sales.
Weekly export sales will be out this morning at 7:30 AM CDT. Analysts are looking for corn sales of 700,000 to 1,400,000 tonnes, soybeans sales of 1,400,000 to 2,200,000 tonnes, and wheat sales of 100,000 to 550,000. The large soybean expectations come from last weeks strong overnight sales reports (sales made from the 6th through the 12th during which old crop sales of 903,816 tonnes, and new crop sales of 709,834 were reported).
Ethanol production was reported lower yesterday at 1.009 million barrels per day. The previous week was at 1.034. Production normally declines during April due to planned annual maintenance. year to date production is still 2.2% over last year, just under USDA’s expectation of a 2.6% increase.
Wheat production is estimated to remain high throughout the world according to USDA attache reports out of Canada and the EU. In Canada, the attache estimates 2018/19 wheat production at 29.9 million tonnes as durum yields will likely offset spring wheat issues. In the EU, production is estimated at 151.2 million tonnes as yield increases will offset a slight reduction in acreage.
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 corn contracts, 6,500 wheat, and 3,000 soyoil in yesterday's trade. They were sellers of 5,000 soybeans, and 5,000 soymeal.
"Robust" business borrowing, rising consumer spending, and tight labor markets indicate the U.S. economy remains on track for continued growth, the Federal Reserve reported on Wednesday, with the risks of a global trade war the one big outlier. In its periodic "Beige Book" summary of contacts with businesses in its 12 regional districts, the Fed said the overall outlook among businesses "remained positive," but that many were worried about the Trump administration's use of tariffs. (Reuters)
Jobless Claims are the focus of economic data out this morning with Initial and Continuing Claims out at 7:30 AM CDT. Philadelphia Fed Index, which measures business growth changes, will be out at 9:00 AM.
US, Canadian, and Mexican officials will meet in Washington today to discuss the latest issues in NAFTA negotiations. A major announcement is not expected from today's meetings. That could come in a few weeks, however.
June hogs pushed above the mid-point (78.05) of the downtrend that had been in place opening up the possibility of filling the upside gaps, from 79.75 - 79.85 and 81.80 - 81.92.
Fed Cattle Exchange traded two pens of cattle yesterday. The first was a $122 sale for Nebraska cattle delivered within 9 days. A second trade, at $120, was for a Nebraska pen for 1 - 17 day delivery.
Members of the Senate Agriculture Committee are urging the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review the intent to purchase National Beef Packing Co. by a Brazilian meat company. "The security, safety, and resiliency of our food system is integral to the overall security of our nation," the senators said.
April Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm CDT. Trade estimates are on Feed 107.5%, Placed 90.3% and Marketed 95.9%.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice up .34 and select down .40. The CME Feeder Index is 137.75. Pork cutout value is up .06.
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