Grain Markets Rebound on Crop Rating Support

Published on: 21:36PM Jul 02, 2019

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for July 2, 2019.

Grain markets continued sliding oncrop weather improvements, including warmer Midwest temperatures over the weekend and beneficial rains in northern areas, helped delayed crop growth. The grain markets recovered from their lowest prices in three weeks after this week’s crop progress report pegged crop conditions below analysts’ forecasts.

President Trump said trade talks with China were under way and any deal would need to be somewhat tilted in favor of the U.S.  President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in a meeting at the G20 summit in Japan to restart trade talks after the last major round of negotiations collapsed in May.  Trump said China has had a "big advantage" over the U.S. in trade for "many years."  "So obviously you can't make a 50-50 deal. It has to be a deal that is somewhat tilted to our advantage," Trump said.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress report showed corn planting at 99% complete (96% last week, 100% last year and 100% 5- year average).   Corn condition rating at 56% GTE (57% GTE estimate, 56% GTE last week).  Soybean planting at 92% (93% estimate, 85% last week, 100% last year and 98% 5-year average). Soybean condition rating at 54% GTE (56% GTE estimated, 54% GTE last week).  Hard red Spring wheat condition rating at 75% GTE (75% estimate, 75% GTE last week). Hard red Winter wheat condition rating at 63% GTE (61% estimate, 61% GTE last week, 37% GTE last year, 39% GTE 5-year average).

China has found the fall armyworm in the major corn-producing province of Shandong in the north, although it has not yet damaged any crops there, the Beijing News reported.  Fall armyworm feasts in large numbers on the leaves and stems of many plant species, and can infest and damage hundreds of hectares of corn overnight.

Commodity funds (on July 1) were net sellers of -20,000 corn contracts, -10,000 soybean contracts, -6,000 wheat contracts, -6,000 soymeal contracts and net sellers of -2,500 soyoil contracts.

Russia's wheat crop estimates and exports were cut as analysts and a weather forecaster gave their latest assessment on the negative impact of June's dry, hot weather. IKAR cut its forecast for Russia's 2019 wheat harvest by 700,000 tonnes to 79.3 million tonnes (72.1 million tonnes of wheat last year).  IKAR estimated Russia’s wheat exports at 35.2 million tonnes with total wheat exports reaching 36 million tonnes, IKAR said.

Saudi Arabia's SAGO said it bought 730,000 tonnes of wheat at its latest international purchasing tender.  The wheat offers were sought for delivery periods between September and November from the E.U., North and South American (except Canadian) and Australia.

Lean hog cash markets continue to drop (Iowa/Minnesota at $68.97 and wholesale pork at $73.69), but futures are showing stronger pricing this week with August futures up $1.77 and December futures up $2.67 since last week’s Hogs & Pigs report.

Cash cattle price averages last week came to $110.13 ($110.48 last week).  This is the lowest cash cattle price of this downtrend since March 2019.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 0.06 and select up 0.08. The CME feeder index is 133.44.  Pork cut-out values were down 0.56.