Markets Brace for Deadline on US - Canada Trade News
Sep 07, 2018
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 7, 2018.
Grain Market Traders continue to wait to see if the US and Canada can strike a NAFTA deal. Negotiations also continue with China, with President Trump saying he is not ready to make a deal that China is offering. Estimates for next week's USDA Supply and Demand report are beginning to enter the market, so we wouldn't be surprised to see some pre-weekend position evening.
Informa Economics raised its forecast for the U.S. 2018 corn yield to 178.8 bushels per acre from 176.0 bpa previously. They also raised its U.S. soybean yield forecast to 52.9 bpa, previously at 50.0 bpa.
Weekly export sales numbers, normally out on Thursday mornings, will be released this morning at 7:30 AM due to Monday's Labor Day holiday. Traders expect to see wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes, corn 400,000 to 1,250,000, and soybeans 200,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes. Old crop cancelations in corn and soybeans would not be a surprise as the marketing year ended August 31st.
Bloomberg released a poll of analyst estimates for next week's USDA supply and demand report. Analysts expect to see corn production at 14,516 on a yield of 177.6. Soybean production is seen at 4,643 on a yield of 52.3. For more on US yields, check out our yield survey results video, here.
Trader's Estimate funds were net buyers of 5,500 corn contracts, 2,000 soybeans, 3,500 contracts of soymeal and sellers of 5,000 wheat contracts in Thursday's trading session.
Russia has no plans to impose a tax on wheat exports, Anatoly Kutsenko, an official at the Agriculture Ministry, said on Thursday. The Agriculture Ministry sees Russia's grain crop in 2018 at 105 million tonnes.
ADP Surveys show U.S. businesses added 163,000 jobs in August. Even though this is the lowest gain since October 2017, the gain still suggests that employers are confident enough in the economy to keep hiring. The ADP figures come a day before the government releases its official jobs data for August. Economists forecast Friday's report will show employers added a solid 189,000 jobs, according to FactSet.
U.S. Tech Stocks hurt the S&P 500 for the third straight session Thursday, with worries about regulation and trade continuing to hang over the market’s best-performing sector.
China reported four more cases of African swine fever on Thursday, bringing the number of outbreaks to 13 since the virus was discovered in the country just over a month ago. The outbreaks have pushed up pork prices in the country's south as demand grows ahead of a week-long holiday in October and also raised the prospect of more imports. (Reuters)
Lean Hog Futures finished higher for the fourth day in a row. October futures finished today’s trading session up $3.00 at 54.97.
US Beef Exportswere updated by the USDA Thursday showing exports in July totaled 279.244 million lbs. This was a new record for any month in history. It was also 17% over last year. The top buyers were Japan at 84 million, South Korea 65, Mexico 42, Canada 27, and Hong Kong at 15.
Dressed Beef values were lower on Thursday with choice down 1.65 and select down 3.08. The CME Feeder Index closed at 151.15. Pork cutout values finished Thursday lower down 0.18.