Markets Cling to Trade Hopes
Nov 05, 2018
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 5, 2018!
Grain Markets closed higher offsome profit taking, USDA early baseline balance sheet projections and repositioning for this week’s USDA supply & demand report. Volatility is expected this week from tomorrow's US midterm elections, trade headlines, and USDA's latest numbers.
Want to Know More about this week's USDA Supply and Demand report? Find out what the potential highlights may be, how USDA may address yields, and more in our free webinar, here.
USDA announced Friday farmers are likely to expand plantings of both corn and wheat while reducing soybean and cotton seedings for the upcoming marketing year. Forecasting 92.0 million acres of corn in the coming crop year (89.1 million last year), soybean acreage reduced to 82.5 million acres (89.1 million last year). The USDA projected all-wheat plantings at 51.0 million acres (47.8 million last year), cotton plantings at 13.5 million acres (13.8 million last year).
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed that for week-end 10/30/18 traders were net sellers of 11,112 corn contracts, net sellers of 26,883 soybeans, and 18,612 wheat. Traders were also net sellers of 3,921 live cattle contracts and net buyers of 4,065 lean hogs contracts.
Crop Progress Report will be released today at 3pm (CST). Trade is looking for corn harvest progress at 81% (63% last week, 78% five-year average), soybean harvest at 82-83% (72% last week, 89% five-year average). Winter wheat planting expected at 85-86% (78% last week, 91% five-year average).
Export Sales show new crop corn sales at 21.8 million mt (17.0 million mt last year), new crop soybean sales at 21.5 million mt (30.3 million mt last year) and wheat sales at 13.1 million mt (15.5 million mt last year).
Estimates for this week's USDA Supply and Demand report have been released by Allendale. We see 2018/19 corn ending stocks at 1,794 million bushels, soybeans 923, and wheat 960. Check out the full details here.
Informa lowered its forecast for the U.S. 2018 corn yield to 179.7 bpa (182.1 last month), U.S. soybean yield forecast were lowered to 52.6 bpa (53.0 bpa last month). Informa projected U.S. 2018 corn production at 14.698 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.647 billion bushels.
Trade Delegation of farm organizations and businesses, lead by the USDA, will head to South Korea, in an effort to build stronger opportunities for U.S. farmers in a key export market. The planned visit is scheduled for Nov. 5-8, the meetings from both countries signing a revised free trade agreement on Sept. 24, 2018.
China has ordered enhanced supervision of vehicles transporting live pigs to contain the spread of deadly African swine fever in the country, according to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.05 and select down 2.78. The CME Feeder Index is at 153.89. Pork cutout value was down .32.