Markets Find Strength on Brazilian Harvest Concerns
Jan 03, 2019
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 3, 2019.
Grain Markets pushed higher on crop stress in Brazil and optimism in US-China trade talks resulting in more US soybean sales to China. March soybean futures closed up 12 cents at $9.07. March wheat settled up 3.5 cents to $5.0675 due to moderate short-covering and too much precipitation forecasted for Argentina. March corn futures had a firm closing up .75 cents to $3.7575 after a choppy trading session.
Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported their December export data with soybean exports at 4.23 million tonnes (5.07 million tonnes last month, 2.36 million tonnes last year). They shipped 4.014 million tonnes of corn (3.997 million tonnes last month and 3.994 million tonnes last year).
Russian Wheat Exports rose sharply to 1.2 million tonnes last week, but trade is expecting very little exports over the next week. As of the end of December, Russia has shipped 28.2 million tonnes of grain since July 1st(23.8 million tonnes of wheat).
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said grain exports have increased to 23.1 million tonnes (20.7 last year). The ministry also said exports could rise to 47.2 million tonnes by the end of this season (39.2 million tonnes last year). Ukraine has exported 9.1 million tonnes of corn (5.6 million tonnes in the same period last year), wheat shipments fell to 10.5 million tonnes (11.3 million tonnes last year).
The USDA will decide on Friday whether to delay a handful of key crop reports scheduled for release on Jan. 11, USDA chief economist Robert Johansson told Reuters. "It takes us a bit of time to put them together. So even if we get funding next week ... we will still need to have a little bit of time to pull together the analysis to put those reports together and get them out," Johansson said. The reports would be released at a later date, he said, depending on how soon the USDA's staff returns to work.
President Trump sounded upbeat yesterday about negotiations to end a trade war with China, saying they are coming along very well. Right now, the U.S. and China are one month into the 90-day break in implementing tariffs and taking other measures in their trade war.
China reported a new outbreak of African swine fever on a farm with 73,000 pigs in Heilongjiang province, the largest farm yet to report a case of the deadly disease. The case in the northeastern province infected 4,686 pigs and killed 3,766 animals, the agriculture ministry said.
China's Ag Ministry said slaughterhouses will be required to run African swine fever virus test for pig products before selling them to the market, in a move to control the spread of the disease.
Last Week's cash cattle trade averaged $123. This was the best price since the first week of May.
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 1.29 and select up 0.25. CME feeder index was at 144.49. Pork cut-out values were down .15.