Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for June 26, 2019.
Grain markets are lower with corn down 3, soybeans down 4, and wheat down 4. With the major USDA reports now just two days away, we expect to see some position evening as traders prepare for the new data.
Reuters complied average estimates for Friday’s USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks report. They see corn at 5.332 billion bushels, soybeans at 1.861, and wheat at 1.100.
Analyst estimates for corn plantings on the Planted Acreage report are 86.662 million acres of corn (89.800 million acres June WASDE, 92.792 million acres March forecast). Soybean plantings average estimate at 84.355 million acres (84.600 million acres June WASDE, 84.617 million acres March forecast). All wheat plantings average estimate at 45.654 million acres (45.800 million acres June WASDE, 45.754 million acres March forecast).
May soybean imports from Brazil to China were down 31% vs a year ago according to customs data. The lower volume comes as Swine Fever has significantly reduced the demand for feed. China bought 6.3 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil in May, down from 9.124 million tonnes in 2018
Iraq Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, said that the country has bought over 3.5 million tonnes of local wheat this season and that they are on track to purchase 4 million tonnes this season. If realized, that figure would be a new record.
Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans, 3,000 wheat, 5,000 soymeal, and 4,500 soyoil in yesterday's trade.
China will reject and turn away all meat shipped from Canada after meat inspections by the Chinese found feed additives not accepted in Canadian pork. They further stated that counterfeit veterinary health certificates, which Canadian officials agreed were counterfeit. No word yet on how long the ban will be in place.
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs will be released tomorrow at 2:00 PM. Allendale estimates All Hogs at 103.6% of last year as of June 1. Kept for Breeding is estimated at 102.3%, and Kept for Marketing at 103.7%.
Vietnam has culled nearly 10% of its pig herd to contain an African swine fever outbreak that has started hitting large-scale industrial farms, the government said in a statement on Tuesday. Earlier outbreaks have appeared mostly at small household farms but have now started to occur at larger industrial operations, including Phu Son Farm in Dong Nai province near Ho Chi Minh City, the statement said. (Reuters)
Last year's end of June cash cattle price hit $107 then rallied up to $114 in the first week of August. Cash cattle then retested the low of $107 in the last week of August. Last year's slaughter posted a minor decline from 659,000 head in the third week of June to 624,000 in early August. We expect a similar minor supply decline this year.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 0.10 and select down 0.86. The CME feeder index is 131.46. Pork cut-out values were down 1.75.